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Brechin vs Stranraer — League Two 2018

Brechin
Brechin
CANC
15:00
Stranraer
Stranraer
3/20/2021League TwoLeague Two · Round 20Glebe Park

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 25+ matches

Brechin26%
×Draw25%
Stranraer49%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.2%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Brechin
1.13
Stranraer
1.63

Stranraer creates 44% more chances

Season form · 25 home / 103 away

creates per match

Brechin
0.72
Stranraer
1.14

allows per match

Brechin
2.12
Stranraer
1.54

finishing

Brechin+0.00on par
Stranraer+0.00on par

Total goals

52%Over
  • Over52
  • Under48

Close call

Both teams score

54%Yes
  • Yes54
  • No46

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Brechin ↓

Stranraer →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–06%
0–110%
0–28%
0–35%
0–42%
1
1–07%
1–112%
1–210%
1–35%
1–42%
2
2–04%
2–17%
2–25%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–02%
3–12%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–00%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
94%6%1.5
76%24%2.5
52%48%3.5
30%70%4.5
14%86%

Double chance

Brechin or draw
51%
Brechin or Stranraer
75%
Draw or Stranraer
74%

Winning margin

Brechin wins by 2+
10%
Stranraer wins by 2+
26%

Team goals

Brechin 1+ goals
68%
Brechin 2+ goals
31%
Brechin 3+ goals
11%
Stranraer 1+ goals
80%
Stranraer 2+ goals
48%
Stranraer 3+ goals
22%

Draw no bet

Brechin (draw refunded)
35%
Stranraer (draw refunded)
65%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
43%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Brechin at home — creates 0.72, concedes 2.12 · 25 matches

Stranraer away — creates 1.14, concedes 1.54 · 103 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Brechin attack 0.72 + Stranraer defence 1.54 → ÷2 → 1.13

Stranraer attack 1.14 + Brechin defence 2.12 → ÷2 → 1.63

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 49%?"

Brechin scores more
26%
level
25%
Stranraer scores more
49%

Stranraer at 49% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 49% does not mean "Stranraer will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Brechin vs Stranraer — Match Preview

Brechin face Stranraer on March 20, 2021 in this League Two fixture. Get live scores, lineups, and real-time match statistics here when the game starts.

Brechin host Stranraer at Glebe Park.

Submit your prediction below — exact score, 1X2, total goals, and both teams to score. Earn XP for correct picks.