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Brechin vs Rothes — League #730 2026

Brechin
Brechin
FT
3 – 0
HT: 0 – 0
Rothes
Rothes
12/20/2025League #730League #730

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 3+ matches

Brechin88%
×Draw9%
Rothes4%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.2%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Brechin
3.30
Rothes
0.56

Brechin creates 489% more chances

Season form · 11 home / 3 away

creates per match

Brechin
2.27
Rothes
0.67

allows per match

Brechin
0.45
Rothes
4.33

finishing

Brechin+0.00on par
Rothes+0.00on par

Total goals

73%Over
  • Over73
  • Under27

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

59%No
  • No59
  • Yes41

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Brechin ↓

Rothes →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–02%
0–11%
0–20%
0–30%
0–40%
1
1–07%
1–14%
1–21%
1–30%
1–40%
2
2–012%
2–17%
2–22%
2–30%
2–40%
3
3–013%
3–17%
3–22%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–011%
4–16%
4–22%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 3–0 (13%) · grid covers 80% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
98%2%1.5
89%11%2.5
73%27%3.5
51%49%4.5
31%69%

Double chance

Brechin or draw
96%
Brechin or Rothes
91%
Draw or Rothes
12%

Winning margin

Brechin wins by 2+
71%
Rothes wins by 2+
1%

Team goals

Brechin 1+ goals
96%
Brechin 2+ goals
83%
Brechin 3+ goals
62%
Rothes 1+ goals
43%
Rothes 2+ goals
11%
Rothes 3+ goals
2%

Draw no bet

Brechin (draw refunded)
96%
Rothes (draw refunded)
4%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
37%
Both score & under 3
4%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Brechin at home — creates 2.27, concedes 0.45 · 11 matches

Rothes away — creates 0.67, concedes 4.33 · 3 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Brechin attack 2.27 + Rothes defence 4.33 → ÷2 → 3.30

Rothes attack 0.67 + Brechin defence 0.45 → ÷2 → 0.56

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 88%?"

Brechin scores more
88%
level
9%
Rothes scores more
4%

Brechin at 88% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 88% does not mean "Brechin will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Brechin vs Rothes

Brechin beat Rothes 3-0 in League #730 on December 20, 2025.