Brechin 0–4 Ross County: Result & Stats

Brechin

0 – 4

HT: 0 – 2

Ross County

7/16/2019

League Cup · Group Stage - 3Glebe Park

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 13+ matches

Brechin9%

×Draw14%

Ross County77%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

BrechinExpected goals in this matchRoss County

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

0.86

2.79

Brechin

0.86

Ross County

2.79

Ross County creates 224% more chances

Season form · 13 home / 18 away

0.62

creates per match

2.11

3.46

allows per match

1.11

creates per match

Brechin

0.62

Ross County

2.11

allows per match

Brechin

3.46

Ross County

1.11

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Brechin+0.00on par

Ross County+0.00on par

Total goals

Over70
Under30

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes54
No46

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Brechin ↓

Ross County →

0–03%

0–17%

0–210%

0–310%

0–47%

1–02%

1–16%

1–29%

1–38%

1–46%

2–01%

2–13%

2–24%

2–34%

2–42%

3–00%

3–11%

3–21%

3–31%

3–41%

4–00%

4–10%

4–20%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 0–2 (10%) · grid covers 87% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

97%3%1.5

88%12%2.5

70%30%3.5

48%52%4.5

29%71%

Double chance

Brechin or draw

23%

Brechin or Ross County

86%

Draw or Ross County

91%

Winning margin

Brechin wins by 2+

Ross County wins by 2+

56%

Team goals

Brechin 1+ goals

58%

Brechin 2+ goals

21%

Brechin 3+ goals

Ross County 1+ goals

94%

Ross County 2+ goals

76%

Ross County 3+ goals

52%

Draw no bet

Brechin (draw refunded)

11%

Ross County (draw refunded)

89%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

48%

Both score & under 3

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

Recent form of each side

Brechin at home — creates 0.62, concedes 3.46 · 13 matches

Ross County away — creates 2.11, concedes 1.11 · 18 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

Expected goals for this match

Brechin attack 0.62 + Ross County defence 1.11 → ÷2 → 0.86

Ross County attack 2.11 + Brechin defence 3.46 → ÷2 → 2.79

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

The answer to "why 77%?"

Brechin scores more

level

14%

Ross County scores more

77%

Ross County at 77% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 77% does not mean "Ross County will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff