Scoreo
FootballHockeyTennisBasketballVolleyballHandballBaseballRugbyMMAFormula 1

Brechin vs Nairn County — League #730 2026

Brechin
Brechin
FT
3 – 0
HT: 1 – 0
Nairn County
Nairn County
4/4/2026League #730League #730

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 7+ matches

Brechin63%
×Draw21%
Nairn County16%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.2%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Brechin
1.99
Nairn County
0.87

Brechin creates 129% more chances

Season form · 11 home / 7 away

creates per match

Brechin
2.27
Nairn County
1.29

allows per match

Brechin
0.45
Nairn County
1.71

finishing

Brechin+0.00on par
Nairn County+0.00on par

Total goals

54%Over
  • Over54
  • Under46

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

50%No
  • No50
  • Yes50

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Brechin ↓

Nairn County →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–06%
0–15%
0–22%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–011%
1–110%
1–24%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–011%
2–110%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–08%
3–17%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–04%
4–13%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (11%) · grid covers 95% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
94%6%1.5
78%22%2.5
54%46%3.5
32%68%4.5
16%84%

Double chance

Brechin or draw
84%
Brechin or Nairn County
79%
Draw or Nairn County
37%

Winning margin

Brechin wins by 2+
39%
Nairn County wins by 2+
5%

Team goals

Brechin 1+ goals
86%
Brechin 2+ goals
59%
Brechin 3+ goals
32%
Nairn County 1+ goals
58%
Nairn County 2+ goals
22%
Nairn County 3+ goals
6%

Draw no bet

Brechin (draw refunded)
80%
Nairn County (draw refunded)
20%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
40%
Both score & under 3
10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Brechin at home — creates 2.27, concedes 0.45 · 11 matches

Nairn County away — creates 1.29, concedes 1.71 · 7 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Brechin attack 2.27 + Nairn County defence 1.71 → ÷2 → 1.99

Nairn County attack 1.29 + Brechin defence 0.45 → ÷2 → 0.87

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 63%?"

Brechin scores more
63%
level
21%
Nairn County scores more
16%

Brechin at 63% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 63% does not mean "Brechin will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Brechin vs Nairn County

Brechin beat Nairn County 3-0 in League #730 on April 4, 2026.