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Brechin vs Livingston — League Cup 2025

Brechin
Brechin
FT
0 – 3
HT: 0 – 1
Livingston
Livingston
7/15/2023League CupLeague Cup · Group Stage - 2Glebe Park

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 5+ matches

Brechin1%
×Draw7%
Livingston92%
✓ Correct in 49 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
48.6%
Always home
43.8%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 48.6% correct across 15,072 matches, vs 43.8% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.1% correct · Away picks 45.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Brechin
0.17
Livingston
2.96

Livingston creates 1641% more chances

Season form · 5 home / 6 away

creates per match

Brechin
0.00
Livingston
2.33

allows per match

Brechin
3.60
Livingston
0.33

finishing

Brechin+0.00on par
Livingston+0.00on par

Total goals

59%Over
  • Over59
  • Under41

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

85%No
  • No85
  • Yes15

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Brechin ↓

Livingston →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–05%
0–113%
0–220%
0–320%
0–414%
1
1–01%
1–12%
1–23%
1–33%
1–42%
2
2–00%
2–10%
2–20%
2–30%
2–40%
3
3–00%
3–10%
3–20%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–00%
4–10%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 0–2 (20%) · grid covers 85% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
95%5%1.5
81%19%2.5
59%41%3.5
36%64%4.5
18%82%

Double chance

Brechin or draw
8%
Brechin or Livingston
93%
Draw or Livingston
99%

Winning margin

Brechin wins by 2+
0%
Livingston wins by 2+
75%

Team goals

Brechin 1+ goals
16%
Brechin 2+ goals
1%
Brechin 3+ goals
0%
Livingston 1+ goals
95%
Livingston 2+ goals
79%
Livingston 3+ goals
55%

Draw no bet

Brechin (draw refunded)
1%
Livingston (draw refunded)
99%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
13%
Both score & under 3
2%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Brechin at home — creates 0.00, concedes 3.60 · 5 matches

Livingston away — creates 2.33, concedes 0.33 · 6 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Brechin attack 0.00 + Livingston defence 0.33 → ÷2 → 0.17

Livingston attack 2.33 + Brechin defence 3.60 → ÷2 → 2.96

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 92%?"

Brechin scores more
1%
level
7%
Livingston scores more
92%

Livingston at 92% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 92% does not mean "Livingston will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Brechin vs Livingston

Livingston beat Brechin 3-0 in League Cup on July 15, 2023.

The match was played at Glebe Park in Brechin.