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Brechin vs Formartine United — League #730 2026

Brechin
Brechin
FT
0 – 0
HT: 0 – 0
Formartine United
Formartine United
3/25/2026League #730League #730

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 6+ matches

Brechin56%
×Draw22%
Formartine United22%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.2%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Brechin
1.97
Formartine United
1.14

Brechin creates 73% more chances

Season form · 11 home / 6 away

creates per match

Brechin
2.27
Formartine United
1.83

allows per match

Brechin
0.45
Formartine United
1.67

finishing

Brechin+0.00on par
Formartine United+0.00on par

Total goals

60%Over
  • Over60
  • Under40

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

58%Yes
  • Yes58
  • No42

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Brechin ↓

Formartine United →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–04%
0–15%
0–23%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–09%
1–110%
1–26%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–09%
2–110%
2–26%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–06%
3–17%
3–24%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–03%
4–13%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (10%) · grid covers 95% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
96%4%1.5
82%18%2.5
60%40%3.5
37%63%4.5
20%80%

Double chance

Brechin or draw
78%
Brechin or Formartine United
78%
Draw or Formartine United
44%

Winning margin

Brechin wins by 2+
33%
Formartine United wins by 2+
8%

Team goals

Brechin 1+ goals
86%
Brechin 2+ goals
58%
Brechin 3+ goals
31%
Formartine United 1+ goals
68%
Formartine United 2+ goals
32%
Formartine United 3+ goals
11%

Draw no bet

Brechin (draw refunded)
72%
Formartine United (draw refunded)
28%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
48%
Both score & under 3
10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Brechin at home — creates 2.27, concedes 0.45 · 11 matches

Formartine United away — creates 1.83, concedes 1.67 · 6 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Brechin attack 2.27 + Formartine United defence 1.67 → ÷2 → 1.97

Formartine United attack 1.83 + Brechin defence 0.45 → ÷2 → 1.14

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 56%?"

Brechin scores more
56%
level
22%
Formartine United scores more
22%

Brechin at 56% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 56% does not mean "Brechin will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Brechin vs Formartine United

Brechin and Formartine United drew 0-0 in League #730 on March 25, 2026.