Scoreo
FootballHockeyTennisBasketballVolleyballHandballBaseballRugbyMMAFormula 1

Brechin vs Elgin City — League Two 2018

Brechin
Brechin
FT
1 – 2
HT: 1 – 0
Elgin City
Elgin City
3/30/2021League TwoLeague Two · Round 10Glebe Park

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 25+ matches

Brechin28%
×Draw25%
Elgin City48%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.2%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Brechin
1.17
Elgin City
1.61

Elgin City creates 38% more chances

Season form · 25 home / 133 away

creates per match

Brechin
0.72
Elgin City
1.10

allows per match

Brechin
2.12
Elgin City
1.63

finishing

Brechin+0.00on par
Elgin City+0.00on par

Total goals

53%Over
  • Over53
  • Under47

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

55%Yes
  • Yes55
  • No45

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Brechin ↓

Elgin City →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–06%
0–110%
0–28%
0–34%
0–42%
1
1–07%
1–112%
1–29%
1–35%
1–42%
2
2–04%
2–17%
2–26%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–02%
3–13%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–00%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
94%6%1.5
77%23%2.5
53%47%3.5
30%70%4.5
15%85%

Double chance

Brechin or draw
52%
Brechin or Elgin City
75%
Draw or Elgin City
72%

Winning margin

Brechin wins by 2+
11%
Elgin City wins by 2+
25%

Team goals

Brechin 1+ goals
69%
Brechin 2+ goals
33%
Brechin 3+ goals
11%
Elgin City 1+ goals
80%
Elgin City 2+ goals
48%
Elgin City 3+ goals
22%

Draw no bet

Brechin (draw refunded)
37%
Elgin City (draw refunded)
63%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
43%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Brechin at home — creates 0.72, concedes 2.12 · 25 matches

Elgin City away — creates 1.10, concedes 1.63 · 133 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Brechin attack 0.72 + Elgin City defence 1.63 → ÷2 → 1.17

Elgin City attack 1.10 + Brechin defence 2.12 → ÷2 → 1.61

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 48%?"

Brechin scores more
28%
level
25%
Elgin City scores more
48%

Elgin City at 48% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 48% does not mean "Elgin City will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Brechin vs Elgin City

Elgin City beat Brechin 2-1 in League Two on March 30, 2021.

The match was played at Glebe Park in Brechin.