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Brechin vs East Fife — League #183 2026

Brechin
Brechin
FT
0 – 0
HT: 0 – 0
East Fife
East Fife
3/5/2019League #183League #183 · Round 24Glebe Park (Brechin)

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 7+ matches

Brechin47%
×Draw25%
East Fife28%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Brechin
1.55
East Fife
1.13

Brechin creates 37% more chances

Season form · 7 home / 12 away

creates per match

Brechin
1.43
East Fife
0.83

allows per match

Brechin
1.43
East Fife
1.67

finishing

Brechin+0.00on par
East Fife+0.00on par

Total goals

50%Under
  • Under50
  • Over50

Close call

Both teams score

53%Yes
  • Yes53
  • No47

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Brechin ↓

East Fife →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–07%
0–18%
0–24%
0–32%
0–40%
1
1–011%
1–112%
1–27%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–08%
2–19%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–04%
3–15%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
93%7%1.5
75%25%2.5
50%50%3.5
28%72%4.5
13%87%

Double chance

Brechin or draw
72%
Brechin or East Fife
75%
Draw or East Fife
53%

Winning margin

Brechin wins by 2+
24%
East Fife wins by 2+
11%

Team goals

Brechin 1+ goals
79%
Brechin 2+ goals
46%
Brechin 3+ goals
20%
East Fife 1+ goals
68%
East Fife 2+ goals
31%
East Fife 3+ goals
11%

Draw no bet

Brechin (draw refunded)
63%
East Fife (draw refunded)
37%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
41%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Brechin at home — creates 1.43, concedes 1.43 · 7 matches

East Fife away — creates 0.83, concedes 1.67 · 12 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Brechin attack 1.43 + East Fife defence 1.67 → ÷2 → 1.55

East Fife attack 0.83 + Brechin defence 1.43 → ÷2 → 1.13

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 47%?"

Brechin scores more
47%
level
25%
East Fife scores more
28%

Brechin at 47% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 47% does not mean "Brechin will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

League #183: Brechin 0–0 East Fife

Brechin and East Fife drew 0-0 in League #183 on March 5, 2019.

The match was played at Glebe Park (Brechin).