Brechin 0–3 Dunfermline: Result & Stats

Brechin

FT

0 – 3

HT: 0 – 1

Dunfermline

N. Clark 70'

D. McManus 55'

L. Ashcroft 28'

9/23/2017

League #180 · Round 7Glebe Park (Brechin)

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 7+ matches

Brechin19%

×Draw30%

Dunfermline51%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

BrechinExpected goals in this matchDunfermline

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

0.65

1.26

Brechin

0.65

Dunfermline

1.26

Dunfermline creates 94% more chances

Season form · 7 home / 17 away

0.29

creates per match

0.82

1.71

allows per match

1.00

creates per match

Brechin

0.29

Dunfermline

0.82

allows per match

Brechin

1.71

Dunfermline

1.00

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Brechin+0.00on par

Dunfermline+0.00on par

Total goals

Under70
Over30

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No66
Yes34

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Brechin ↓

Dunfermline →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–015%

0–119%

0–212%

0–35%

0–42%

1

1–010%

1–112%

1–28%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–03%

2–14%

2–22%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–01%

3–11%

3–21%

3–30%

3–40%

4

4–00%

4–10%

4–20%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 0–1 (19%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

85%15%1.5

57%43%2.5

30%70%3.5

13%87%4.5

4%96%

Double chance

Brechin or draw

49%

Brechin or Dunfermline

70%

Draw or Dunfermline

81%

Winning margin

Brechin wins by 2+

5%

Dunfermline wins by 2+

24%

Team goals

Brechin 1+ goals

48%

Brechin 2+ goals

14%

Brechin 3+ goals

3%

Dunfermline 1+ goals

72%

Dunfermline 2+ goals

36%

Dunfermline 3+ goals

13%

Draw no bet

Brechin (draw refunded)

27%

Dunfermline (draw refunded)

73%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

22%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Brechin at home — creates 0.29, concedes 1.71 · 7 matches

Dunfermline away — creates 0.82, concedes 1.00 · 17 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Brechin attack 0.29 + Dunfermline defence 1.00 → ÷2 → 0.65

Dunfermline attack 0.82 + Brechin defence 1.71 → ÷2 → 1.26

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 51%?"

Brechin scores more

19%

level

30%

Dunfermline scores more

51%

Dunfermline at 51% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 51% does not mean "Dunfermline will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

28'

L. Ashcroft

55'

D. McManus↳ R. Williamson

61'

A. Love← C. McLennan

68'

C. Smith← D. Hopkirk

70'

N. Clark↳ R. Williamson

71'

E. Spark← C. ONeil

78'

A. Splaine← D. Shiels

78'

A. Ryan← D. McManus

80'

L. Watt← F. Graham

Brechin

Dunfermline

1

Murdoch

14

Talbot

5

Morris

6

⚽

Ashcroft

2

A

Williamso

27

▼

Shiels

7

Higginbot

8

Wedderbur

10

⚽

Clark

12

▼

Hopkirk

9

⚽

▼

1

3

2

20

5

12

▼

O'Neil

6

Dale

8

▼

Graham

21

Sinclair

18

Orsi

17

▼

McLennan

Manager: D. Dods

61'▲A. Love←▼C. McLennan

71'▲E. Spark←▼C. ONeil

80'▲L. Watt←▼F. Graham

Brechin substitutes

7Love15Spark11Watt10Layne4Fusco19O'Neil

Manager: A. Johnston

68'▲C. Smith←▼D. Hopkirk

78'▲A. Splaine←▼D. Shiels

78'▲A. Ryan←▼D. McManus

Dunfermline substitutes

23Smith13Splaine16Ryan19Lochhead17Aird20Gill3Martin