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Brechin vs Dundonald Bluebell — FA Cup 2019

Brechin
Brechin
FT
3 – 1
HT: 0 – 0
Dundonald Bluebell
Dundonald Bluebell
10/25/2025FA CupFA Cup · 2nd Round

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 3+ matches

Brechin72%
×Draw14%
Dundonald Bluebell14%
✓ Correct in 51 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.6%
Always home
44.7%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.6% correct across 576,853 matches, vs 44.7% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.9% correct · Away picks 49.7% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Brechin
3.21
Dundonald Bluebell
1.39

Brechin creates 131% more chances

Season form · 11 home / 3 away

creates per match

Brechin
2.09
Dundonald Bluebell
1.33

allows per match

Brechin
1.45
Dundonald Bluebell
4.33

finishing

Brechin+0.00on par
Dundonald Bluebell+0.00on par

Total goals

83%Over
  • Over83
  • Under17

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

72%Yes
  • Yes72
  • No28

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Brechin ↓

Dundonald Bluebell →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–01%
0–11%
0–21%
0–30%
0–40%
1
1–03%
1–15%
1–23%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–05%
2–18%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–06%
3–18%
3–26%
3–33%
3–41%
4
4–05%
4–16%
4–25%
4–32%
4–41%

Most likely 2–1 (8%) · grid covers 80% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
99%1%1.5
94%6%2.5
83%17%3.5
66%34%4.5
46%54%

Double chance

Brechin or draw
86%
Brechin or Dundonald Bluebell
86%
Draw or Dundonald Bluebell
28%

Winning margin

Brechin wins by 2+
53%
Dundonald Bluebell wins by 2+
5%

Team goals

Brechin 1+ goals
96%
Brechin 2+ goals
82%
Brechin 3+ goals
60%
Dundonald Bluebell 1+ goals
75%
Dundonald Bluebell 2+ goals
40%
Dundonald Bluebell 3+ goals
16%

Draw no bet

Brechin (draw refunded)
84%
Dundonald Bluebell (draw refunded)
16%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
67%
Both score & under 3
5%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Brechin at home — creates 2.09, concedes 1.45 · 11 matches

Dundonald Bluebell away — creates 1.33, concedes 4.33 · 3 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Brechin attack 2.09 + Dundonald Bluebell defence 4.33 → ÷2 → 3.21

Dundonald Bluebell attack 1.33 + Brechin defence 1.45 → ÷2 → 1.39

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 72%?"

Brechin scores more
72%
level
14%
Dundonald Bluebell scores more
14%

Brechin at 72% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 72% does not mean "Brechin will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Brechin vs Dundonald Bluebell

Brechin beat Dundonald Bluebell 3-1 in FA Cup on October 25, 2025.