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Brechin vs Dundee Utd — League Cup 2018

Brechin
Brechin
FT
2 – 6
HT: 0 – 3
Dundee Utd
Dundee Utd
10/7/2020League CupLeague Cup · Group Stage - 2Glebe Park

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 13+ matches

Brechin10%
×Draw15%
Dundee Utd75%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Brechin
0.81
Dundee Utd
2.58

Dundee Utd creates 219% more chances

Season form · 13 home / 17 away

creates per match

Brechin
0.62
Dundee Utd
1.71

allows per match

Brechin
3.46
Dundee Utd
1.00

finishing

Brechin+0.00on par
Dundee Utd+0.00on par

Total goals

65%Over
  • Over65
  • Under35

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

51%Yes
  • Yes51
  • No49

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Brechin ↓

Dundee Utd →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–03%
0–19%
0–211%
0–310%
0–46%
1
1–03%
1–17%
1–29%
1–38%
1–45%
2
2–01%
2–13%
2–24%
2–33%
2–42%
3
3–00%
3–11%
3–21%
3–31%
3–41%
4
4–00%
4–10%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 0–2 (11%) · grid covers 89% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
97%3%1.5
85%15%2.5
65%35%3.5
43%57%4.5
24%76%

Double chance

Brechin or draw
25%
Brechin or Dundee Utd
85%
Draw or Dundee Utd
90%

Winning margin

Brechin wins by 2+
3%
Dundee Utd wins by 2+
53%

Team goals

Brechin 1+ goals
56%
Brechin 2+ goals
19%
Brechin 3+ goals
5%
Dundee Utd 1+ goals
92%
Dundee Utd 2+ goals
72%
Dundee Utd 3+ goals
47%

Draw no bet

Brechin (draw refunded)
11%
Dundee Utd (draw refunded)
89%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
44%
Both score & under 3
7%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Brechin at home — creates 0.62, concedes 3.46 · 13 matches

Dundee Utd away — creates 1.71, concedes 1.00 · 17 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Brechin attack 0.62 + Dundee Utd defence 1.00 → ÷2 → 0.81

Dundee Utd attack 1.71 + Brechin defence 3.46 → ÷2 → 2.58

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 75%?"

Brechin scores more
10%
level
15%
Dundee Utd scores more
75%

Dundee Utd at 75% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 75% does not mean "Dundee Utd will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

League Cup: Brechin 2–6 Dundee Utd

Dundee Utd beat Brechin 6-2 in League Cup on October 7, 2020.

The match was played at Glebe Park in Brechin.