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Brea vs Utebo — Tercera División RFEF - Group 17 2019

Brea
Brea
FT
1 – 0
HT: 1 – 0
Utebo
Utebo
9/22/2019Tercera División RFEF - Group 17Tercera División RFEF - Group 17 · Group 17 - 6Estadio Municipal de Piedrabuena

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 45+ matches

Brea45%
×Draw29%
Utebo27%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Brea
1.27
Utebo
0.91

Brea creates 40% more chances

Season form · 45 home / 45 away

creates per match

Brea
1.42
Utebo
1.09

allows per match

Brea
0.73
Utebo
1.11

finishing

Brea+0.00on par
Utebo+0.00on par

Total goals

63%Under
  • Under63
  • Over37

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

57%No
  • No57
  • Yes43

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Brea ↓

Utebo →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–011%
0–110%
0–25%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–014%
1–113%
1–26%
1–32%
1–40%
2
2–09%
2–18%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–04%
3–14%
3–22%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (14%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
89%11%1.5
64%36%2.5
37%63%3.5
18%82%4.5
7%93%

Double chance

Brea or draw
73%
Brea or Utebo
71%
Draw or Utebo
55%

Winning margin

Brea wins by 2+
20%
Utebo wins by 2+
9%

Team goals

Brea 1+ goals
72%
Brea 2+ goals
36%
Brea 3+ goals
14%
Utebo 1+ goals
60%
Utebo 2+ goals
23%
Utebo 3+ goals
6%

Draw no bet

Brea (draw refunded)
63%
Utebo (draw refunded)
37%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
30%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Brea at home — creates 1.42, concedes 0.73 · 45 matches

Utebo away — creates 1.09, concedes 1.11 · 45 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Brea attack 1.42 + Utebo defence 1.11 → ÷2 → 1.27

Utebo attack 1.09 + Brea defence 0.73 → ÷2 → 0.91

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 45%?"

Brea scores more
45%
level
29%
Utebo scores more
27%

Brea at 45% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 45% does not mean "Brea will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Brea vs Utebo

Brea beat Utebo 1-0 in Tercera División RFEF - Group 17 on September 22, 2019.

The match was played at Estadio Municipal de Piedrabuena in Brea de Aragón.