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Brea vs Teruel — Tercera División RFEF - Group 17 2019

Brea
Brea
FT
1 – 0
HT: 0 – 0
Teruel
Teruel
11/3/2019Tercera División RFEF - Group 17Tercera División RFEF - Group 17 · Group 17 - 13Estadio Municipal de Piedrabuena

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 28+ matches

Brea34%
×Draw30%
Teruel36%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Brea
1.05
Teruel
1.08

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 45 home / 28 away

creates per match

Brea
1.42
Teruel
1.43

allows per match

Brea
0.73
Teruel
0.68

finishing

Brea+0.00on par
Teruel+0.00on par

Total goals

64%Under
  • Under64
  • Over36

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

57%No
  • No57
  • Yes43

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Brea ↓

Teruel →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–012%
0–113%
0–27%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–012%
1–113%
1–27%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–17%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–02%
3–12%
3–21%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 0–1 (13%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
88%12%1.5
63%37%2.5
36%64%3.5
17%83%4.5
6%94%

Double chance

Brea or draw
64%
Brea or Teruel
70%
Draw or Teruel
66%

Winning margin

Brea wins by 2+
13%
Teruel wins by 2+
14%

Team goals

Brea 1+ goals
65%
Brea 2+ goals
28%
Brea 3+ goals
9%
Teruel 1+ goals
66%
Teruel 2+ goals
29%
Teruel 3+ goals
10%

Draw no bet

Brea (draw refunded)
49%
Teruel (draw refunded)
51%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
29%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Brea at home — creates 1.42, concedes 0.73 · 45 matches

Teruel away — creates 1.43, concedes 0.68 · 28 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Brea attack 1.42 + Teruel defence 0.68 → ÷2 → 1.05

Teruel attack 1.43 + Brea defence 0.73 → ÷2 → 1.08

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 36%?"

Brea scores more
34%
level
30%
Teruel scores more
36%

Teruel at 36% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 36% does not mean "Teruel will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Brea vs Teruel

Brea beat Teruel 1-0 in Tercera División RFEF - Group 17 on November 3, 2019.

The match was played at Estadio Municipal de Piedrabuena in Brea de Aragón.