Brea 3–0 San Juan Mozarrifar: Result & Stats

Brea

3 – 0

HT: 1 – 0

San Juan Mozarrifar

Miki 89'

Sergio Carrasco 51'

Emilio Velasco 12'

10/6/2019

Tercera División RFEF - Group 17 · Group 17 - 8Estadio Municipal de Piedrabuena

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 24+ matches

Brea65%

×Draw23%

San Juan Mozarrifar12%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

BreaExpected goals in this matchSan Juan Mozarrifar

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.75

0.59

Brea

1.75

San Juan Mozarrifar

0.59

Brea creates 197% more chances

Season form · 45 home / 24 away

1.42

creates per match

0.46

0.73

allows per match

2.08

creates per match

Brea

1.42

San Juan Mozarrifar

0.46

allows per match

Brea

0.73

San Juan Mozarrifar

2.08

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Brea+0.00on par

San Juan Mozarrifar+0.00on par

Total goals

Under59
Over41

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No63
Yes37

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Brea ↓

San Juan Mozarrifar →

0–010%

0–16%

0–22%

0–30%

0–40%

1–017%

1–110%

1–23%

1–31%

1–40%

2–015%

2–19%

2–23%

2–31%

2–40%

3–09%

3–15%

3–22%

3–30%

3–40%

4–04%

4–12%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (17%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

90%10%1.5

68%32%2.5

41%59%3.5

21%79%4.5

9%91%

Double chance

Brea or draw

88%

Brea or San Juan Mozarrifar

77%

Draw or San Juan Mozarrifar

35%

Winning margin

Brea wins by 2+

38%

San Juan Mozarrifar wins by 2+

Team goals

Brea 1+ goals

83%

Brea 2+ goals

52%

Brea 3+ goals

25%

San Juan Mozarrifar 1+ goals

45%

San Juan Mozarrifar 2+ goals

12%

San Juan Mozarrifar 3+ goals

Draw no bet

Brea (draw refunded)

84%

San Juan Mozarrifar (draw refunded)

16%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

27%

Both score & under 3

10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

Recent form of each side

Brea at home — creates 1.42, concedes 0.73 · 45 matches

San Juan Mozarrifar away — creates 0.46, concedes 2.08 · 24 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

Expected goals for this match

Brea attack 1.42 + San Juan Mozarrifar defence 2.08 → ÷2 → 1.75

San Juan Mozarrifar attack 0.46 + Brea defence 0.73 → ÷2 → 0.59

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

The answer to "why 65%?"

Brea scores more

65%

level

23%

San Juan Mozarrifar scores more

12%

Brea at 65% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 65% does not mean "Brea will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

12'

Emilio Velasco

46'

Dani Marqués← Javi Pérez

51'

Sergio Carrasco

55'

Nacho← David Subías

65'

Daniel Sarvise← Raúl Rubio

65'

Falo Burriel← Adrián Casas

76'

Rodri Hernando← Catalá

79'

Jorge López← Sergio Carrasco

89'

Miki

Brea

San

▼

▼

▼

▼

⚽

▼

⚽

▼

⚽

Manager: Raúl Jardiel

55'▲Nacho←▼David Subías

65'▲Daniel Sarvise←▼Raúl Rubio

79'▲Jorge López←▼Sergio Carrasco

Brea substitutes

NachoSarviseLópez

Manager: Nacho Forcén

46'▲Dani Marqués←▼Javi Pérez

65'▲Falo Burriel←▼Adrián Casas

76'▲Rodri Hernando←▼Catalá

San Juan Mozarrifar substitutes

MarquésBurrielHernando

Tercera División RFEF - Group 17: Brea 3–0 San Juan Mozarrifar

Brea beat San Juan Mozarrifar 3-0 in Tercera División RFEF - Group 17 on October 6, 2019.

Goals: Emilio Velasco (12'), Sergio Carrasco (51'), Miki (89').

The match was played at Estadio Municipal de Piedrabuena in Brea de Aragón.

Brea vs San Juan Mozarrifar — Tercera División RFEF - Group 17 2019

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Total goals

Both teams score

Match Events

Head to Head

Tercera División RFEF - Group 17: Brea 3–0 San Juan Mozarrifar