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Brea vs CDJ Tamarite — Tercera División RFEF - Group 17 2019

Brea
Brea
FT
2 – 0
HT: 1 – 0
CDJ Tamarite
CDJ Tamarite
12/1/2024Tercera División RFEF - Group 17Tercera División RFEF - Group 17 · Group 17 - 12Estadio Municipal de Piedrabuena

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 45+ matches

Brea54%
×Draw25%
CDJ Tamarite21%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Brea
1.61
CDJ Tamarite
0.89

Brea creates 81% more chances

Season form · 45 home / 98 away

creates per match

Brea
1.42
CDJ Tamarite
1.05

allows per match

Brea
0.73
CDJ Tamarite
1.81

finishing

Brea+0.00on par
CDJ Tamarite+0.00on par

Total goals

54%Under
  • Under54
  • Over46

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

53%No
  • No53
  • Yes47

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Brea ↓

CDJ Tamarite →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–08%
0–17%
0–23%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–013%
1–112%
1–25%
1–32%
1–40%
2
2–011%
2–19%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–06%
3–15%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (13%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
92%8%1.5
71%29%2.5
46%54%3.5
24%76%4.5
11%89%

Double chance

Brea or draw
79%
Brea or CDJ Tamarite
75%
Draw or CDJ Tamarite
46%

Winning margin

Brea wins by 2+
29%
CDJ Tamarite wins by 2+
7%

Team goals

Brea 1+ goals
80%
Brea 2+ goals
48%
Brea 3+ goals
22%
CDJ Tamarite 1+ goals
59%
CDJ Tamarite 2+ goals
22%
CDJ Tamarite 3+ goals
6%

Draw no bet

Brea (draw refunded)
72%
CDJ Tamarite (draw refunded)
28%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
35%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Brea at home — creates 1.42, concedes 0.73 · 45 matches

CDJ Tamarite away — creates 1.05, concedes 1.81 · 98 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Brea attack 1.42 + CDJ Tamarite defence 1.81 → ÷2 → 1.61

CDJ Tamarite attack 1.05 + Brea defence 0.73 → ÷2 → 0.89

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 54%?"

Brea scores more
54%
level
25%
CDJ Tamarite scores more
21%

Brea at 54% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 54% does not mean "Brea will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Brea vs CDJ Tamarite

Brea beat CDJ Tamarite 2-0 in Tercera División RFEF - Group 17 on December 1, 2024.

The match was played at Estadio Municipal de Piedrabuena in Brea de Aragón.