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Brazos Valley vs Tormenta II — USL League Two 2018

Brazos Valley
Brazos Valley
FT
1 – 5
Tormenta II
Tormenta II
7/21/2019USL League TwoUSL League Two · Conference - FinalsSoutheastern Freight Lines Soccer Complex (Columbia, South Carolina)

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 23+ matches

Brazos Valley38%
×Draw22%
Tormenta II40%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Brazos Valley
1.79
Tormenta II
1.84

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 47 home / 23 away

creates per match

Brazos Valley
2.32
Tormenta II
2.13

allows per match

Brazos Valley
1.55
Tormenta II
1.26

finishing

Brazos Valley+0.00on par
Tormenta II+0.00on par

Total goals

70%Over
  • Over70
  • Under30

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

70%Yes
  • Yes70
  • No30

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Brazos Valley ↓

Tormenta II →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–03%
0–15%
0–25%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–05%
1–19%
1–28%
1–35%
1–42%
2
2–04%
2–18%
2–27%
2–34%
2–42%
3
3–03%
3–15%
3–24%
3–33%
3–41%
4
4–01%
4–12%
4–22%
4–31%
4–41%

Most likely 1–1 (9%) · grid covers 93% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
97%3%1.5
88%12%2.5
70%30%3.5
49%51%4.5
30%70%

Double chance

Brazos Valley or draw
60%
Brazos Valley or Tormenta II
78%
Draw or Tormenta II
62%

Winning margin

Brazos Valley wins by 2+
20%
Tormenta II wins by 2+
21%

Team goals

Brazos Valley 1+ goals
83%
Brazos Valley 2+ goals
53%
Brazos Valley 3+ goals
26%
Tormenta II 1+ goals
84%
Tormenta II 2+ goals
55%
Tormenta II 3+ goals
28%

Draw no bet

Brazos Valley (draw refunded)
49%
Tormenta II (draw refunded)
51%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
61%
Both score & under 3
9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Brazos Valley at home — creates 2.32, concedes 1.55 · 47 matches

Tormenta II away — creates 2.13, concedes 1.26 · 23 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Brazos Valley attack 2.32 + Tormenta II defence 1.26 → ÷2 → 1.79

Tormenta II attack 2.13 + Brazos Valley defence 1.55 → ÷2 → 1.84

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 40%?"

Brazos Valley scores more
38%
level
22%
Tormenta II scores more
40%

Tormenta II at 40% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 40% does not mean "Tormenta II will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Brazos Valley vs Tormenta II

Tormenta II beat Brazos Valley 5-1 in USL League Two on July 21, 2019.

The match was played at Southeastern Freight Lines Soccer Complex (Columbia, South Carolina).