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Brazos Valley vs Round Rock — USL League Two 2018

Brazos Valley
Brazos Valley
FT
2 – 1
HT: 1 – 0
Round Rock
Round Rock
7/8/2022USL League TwoUSL League Two · Round 63Edible Field

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 20+ matches

Brazos Valley65%
×Draw17%
Round Rock18%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Brazos Valley
2.73
Round Rock
1.40

Brazos Valley creates 95% more chances

Season form · 47 home / 20 away

creates per match

Brazos Valley
2.32
Round Rock
1.25

allows per match

Brazos Valley
1.55
Round Rock
3.15

finishing

Brazos Valley+0.00on par
Round Rock+0.00on par

Total goals

78%Over
  • Over78
  • Under22

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

70%Yes
  • Yes70
  • No30

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Brazos Valley ↓

Round Rock →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–02%
0–12%
0–22%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–04%
1–16%
1–24%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–06%
2–19%
2–26%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–06%
3–18%
3–25%
3–33%
3–41%
4
4–04%
4–15%
4–24%
4–32%
4–41%

Most likely 2–1 (9%) · grid covers 87% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
98%2%1.5
92%8%2.5
78%22%3.5
58%42%4.5
38%62%

Double chance

Brazos Valley or draw
82%
Brazos Valley or Round Rock
83%
Draw or Round Rock
35%

Winning margin

Brazos Valley wins by 2+
44%
Round Rock wins by 2+
7%

Team goals

Brazos Valley 1+ goals
93%
Brazos Valley 2+ goals
75%
Brazos Valley 3+ goals
50%
Round Rock 1+ goals
75%
Round Rock 2+ goals
41%
Round Rock 3+ goals
17%

Draw no bet

Brazos Valley (draw refunded)
78%
Round Rock (draw refunded)
22%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
64%
Both score & under 3
6%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Brazos Valley at home — creates 2.32, concedes 1.55 · 47 matches

Round Rock away — creates 1.25, concedes 3.15 · 20 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Brazos Valley attack 2.32 + Round Rock defence 3.15 → ÷2 → 2.73

Round Rock attack 1.25 + Brazos Valley defence 1.55 → ÷2 → 1.40

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 65%?"

Brazos Valley scores more
65%
level
17%
Round Rock scores more
18%

Brazos Valley at 65% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 65% does not mean "Brazos Valley will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Brazos Valley vs Round Rock

Brazos Valley beat Round Rock 2-1 in USL League Two on July 8, 2022.

The match was played at Edible Field in Bryan, Texas.