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Brazil vs Costa Rica — World Cup 2026

Brazil
Brazil
FT
2 – 0
HT: 0 – 0
Costa Rica
Costa Rica
Neymar 90+7'
Philippe Coutinho 90+1'
6/22/2018World CupWorld Cup · Group Stage - 2Saint-Petersburg Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 4+ matches

Brazil72%
×Draw17%
Costa Rica11%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.2%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Brazil
2.29
Costa Rica
0.74

Brazil creates 209% more chances

Season form · 11 home / 4 away

creates per match

Brazil
1.82
Costa Rica
0.75

allows per match

Brazil
0.73
Costa Rica
2.75

finishing

Brazil+0.00on par
Costa Rica+0.00on par

Total goals

58%Over
  • Over58
  • Under42

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

53%No
  • No53
  • Yes47

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Brazil ↓

Costa Rica →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–05%
0–14%
0–21%
0–30%
0–40%
1
1–011%
1–18%
1–23%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–013%
2–19%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–010%
3–17%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–06%
4–14%
4–22%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 2–0 (13%) · grid covers 92% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
95%5%1.5
80%20%2.5
58%42%3.5
35%65%4.5
18%82%

Double chance

Brazil or draw
89%
Brazil or Costa Rica
83%
Draw or Costa Rica
28%

Winning margin

Brazil wins by 2+
48%
Costa Rica wins by 2+
3%

Team goals

Brazil 1+ goals
90%
Brazil 2+ goals
66%
Brazil 3+ goals
40%
Costa Rica 1+ goals
52%
Costa Rica 2+ goals
17%
Costa Rica 3+ goals
4%

Draw no bet

Brazil (draw refunded)
87%
Costa Rica (draw refunded)
13%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
39%
Both score & under 3
8%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Brazil at home — creates 1.82, concedes 0.73 · 11 matches

Costa Rica away — creates 0.75, concedes 2.75 · 4 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Brazil attack 1.82 + Costa Rica defence 2.75 → ÷2 → 2.29

Costa Rica attack 0.75 + Brazil defence 0.73 → ÷2 → 0.74

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 72%?"

Brazil scores more
72%
level
17%
Costa Rica scores more
11%

Brazil at 72% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 72% does not mean "Brazil will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

11
Philippe CoutinhoBrazilBrazil · M
8.2

Match Events

46'
Douglas Costa← Willian
54'
C. Bolaños← M. Ureña
68'
Roberto Firmino← Paulinho
75'
F. Calvo← C. Gamboa
81'
Philippe Coutinho
81'
Neymar
83'
Y. Tejeda← D. Guzmán
84'
Jhonny Acosta
90+3'
Fernandinho← Gabriel Jesus
90+1'
Philippe Coutinho↳ Gabriel Jesus
90+7'
Neymar↳ Douglas Costa

Possession

71%Brazil

Shots

22Brazil

Pass accuracy

56%Brazil

Statistics

BrazilCosta
Overview
71%Possession29%
22Total Shots3
9Corners1
11Fouls11
Shots
22Total Shots3
10On Target0
10Off Target3
2Blocked0
12Inside Box1
10Outside Box2
Passing
71%Possession29%
705Total Passes280
645Accurate Passes198
91%Pass Accuracy71%
Goalkeeping
0Saves7
Discipline
11Fouls11
2Yellow Cards1
3Offsides3

World Cup: Brazil 2–0 Costa Rica

Brazil beat Costa Rica 2-0 in World Cup on June 22, 2018.

Goals: Philippe Coutinho (90+1'), Neymar (90+7').

Brazil controlled possession (71%) and registered 22 shots to 3.

The match was played at Saint-Petersburg Stadium in St. Petersburg.