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Brazil U20 W vs Venezuela U20 W — League #1085 2026

Brazil U20 W
Brazil U20 W
FT
2 – 0
HT: 2 – 0
Venezuela U20 W
Venezuela U20 W
2/28/2026League #1085League #1085

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 3+ matches

Brazil U20 W60%
×Draw23%
Venezuela U20 W17%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.2%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Brazil U20 W
1.79
Venezuela U20 W
0.83

Brazil U20 W creates 116% more chances

Season form · 3 home / 4 away

creates per match

Brazil U20 W
2.33
Venezuela U20 W
1.00

allows per match

Brazil U20 W
0.67
Venezuela U20 W
1.25

finishing

Brazil U20 W+0.00on par
Venezuela U20 W+0.00on par

Total goals

51%Under
  • Under51
  • Over49

Close call

Both teams score

53%No
  • No53
  • Yes47

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Brazil U20 W ↓

Venezuela U20 W →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–07%
0–16%
0–23%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–013%
1–111%
1–25%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–012%
2–110%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–07%
3–16%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–03%
4–13%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (13%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
93%7%1.5
74%26%2.5
49%51%3.5
27%73%4.5
12%88%

Double chance

Brazil U20 W or draw
83%
Brazil U20 W or Venezuela U20 W
77%
Draw or Venezuela U20 W
40%

Winning margin

Brazil U20 W wins by 2+
35%
Venezuela U20 W wins by 2+
5%

Team goals

Brazil U20 W 1+ goals
83%
Brazil U20 W 2+ goals
53%
Brazil U20 W 3+ goals
26%
Venezuela U20 W 1+ goals
56%
Venezuela U20 W 2+ goals
20%
Venezuela U20 W 3+ goals
5%

Draw no bet

Brazil U20 W (draw refunded)
78%
Venezuela U20 W (draw refunded)
22%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
36%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Brazil U20 W at home — creates 2.33, concedes 0.67 · 3 matches

Venezuela U20 W away — creates 1.00, concedes 1.25 · 4 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Brazil U20 W attack 2.33 + Venezuela U20 W defence 1.25 → ÷2 → 1.79

Venezuela U20 W attack 1.00 + Brazil U20 W defence 0.67 → ÷2 → 0.83

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 60%?"

Brazil U20 W scores more
60%
level
23%
Venezuela U20 W scores more
17%

Brazil U20 W at 60% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 60% does not mean "Brazil U20 W will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

League #1085: Brazil U20 W 2–0 Venezuela U20 W

Brazil U20 W beat Venezuela U20 W 2-0 in League #1085 on February 28, 2026.