Brazil U17 W vs Mexico U17 W — League #950 2026
Match Prediction
Statistical Prediction
Based on goals from last 3+ matches
Brazil U17 W45%
Mexico U17 W32%✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.
Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct
Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.
Expected goals in this match
What is xG?
Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.
The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.
Brazil U17 W creates 22% more chances
Season form · 3 home / 3 away
creates per match
allows per match
finishing
Total goals
- Over65
- Under35
3+ goals likely
Both teams score
- Yes65
- No35
Both teams likely to score
Score probability
Probability of each scoreline, %
Brazil U17 W ↓
Most likely 1–1 (10%) · grid covers 95% of scorelines
More markets
Total goals
Double chance
Winning margin
Team goals
Draw no bet
Combos
Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.
How is this calculated?
Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.
Recent form of each side
Brazil U17 W at home — creates 2.00, concedes 2.00 · 3 matches
Mexico U17 W away — creates 1.00, concedes 1.67 · 3 matches
⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.
Expected goals for this match
Brazil U17 W attack 2.00 + Mexico U17 W defence 1.67 → ÷2 → 1.83
Mexico U17 W attack 1.00 + Brazil U17 W defence 2.00 → ÷2 → 1.50
Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.
Chance of every scoreline
From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.
The answer to "why 45%?"
Brazil U17 W at 45% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.
What the model can't see
It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:
- injuries & suspensions
- the matchday lineup
- motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
- weather & pitch condition
- in-game coaching decisions
So 45% does not mean "Brazil U17 W will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."
Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.
Match Events
Head to Head
1 previous meeting · small sampleBrazil U17 W host Mexico U17 W on Saturday, 8 November 2025 at 15:30. The match is part of the League #950 2026/2027 season.
Match Recap: Brazil U17 W vs Mexico U17 W
Brazil U17 W and Mexico U17 W drew 1-1 in League #950 on November 8, 2025.
Goals: Kaylane (78'), Evelin (90' o.g.).
The match was played at Stade Prince Moulay Abdallah in Rabat.