Brazil Juniors 1–1 Jong Aruba: Result & Stats

Brazil Juniors

FT

1 – 1

HT: 0 – 0

Jong Aruba

3/18/2026

Division di Honor · Relegation - 1

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 10+ matches

Brazil Juniors41%

×Draw21%

Jong Aruba38%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Brazil JuniorsExpected goals in this matchJong Aruba

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

2.06

1.98

Brazil Juniors

2.06

Jong Aruba

1.98

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 12 home / 10 away

1.92

creates per match

1.70

2.25

allows per match

2.20

creates per match

Brazil Juniors

1.92

Jong Aruba

1.70

allows per match

Brazil Juniors

2.25

Jong Aruba

2.20

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Brazil Juniors+0.00on par

Jong Aruba+0.00on par

Total goals

Over77
Under23

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes75
No25

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Brazil Juniors ↓

Jong Aruba →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–02%

0–14%

0–23%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–04%

1–17%

1–27%

1–35%

1–42%

2

2–04%

2–17%

2–27%

2–35%

2–42%

3

3–03%

3–15%

3–25%

3–33%

3–42%

4

4–01%

4–13%

4–23%

4–32%

4–41%

Most likely 1–1 (7%) · grid covers 90% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

98%2%1.5

91%9%2.5

77%23%3.5

57%43%4.5

37%63%

Double chance

Brazil Juniors or draw

62%

Brazil Juniors or Jong Aruba

79%

Draw or Jong Aruba

59%

Winning margin

Brazil Juniors wins by 2+

23%

Jong Aruba wins by 2+

21%

Team goals

Brazil Juniors 1+ goals

87%

Brazil Juniors 2+ goals

61%

Brazil Juniors 3+ goals

34%

Jong Aruba 1+ goals

86%

Jong Aruba 2+ goals

59%

Jong Aruba 3+ goals

31%

Draw no bet

Brazil Juniors (draw refunded)

52%

Jong Aruba (draw refunded)

48%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

68%

Both score & under 3

7%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Brazil Juniors at home — creates 1.92, concedes 2.25 · 12 matches

Jong Aruba away — creates 1.70, concedes 2.20 · 10 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Brazil Juniors attack 1.92 + Jong Aruba defence 2.20 → ÷2 → 2.06

Jong Aruba attack 1.70 + Brazil Juniors defence 2.25 → ÷2 → 1.98

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 41%?"

Brazil Juniors scores more

41%

level

21%

Jong Aruba scores more

38%

Brazil Juniors at 41% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 41% does not mean "Brazil Juniors will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff