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Brazil Juniors vs Bubali — Division di Honor 2019

Brazil Juniors
Brazil Juniors
FT
1 – 3
Bubali
Bubali
11/23/2019Division di HonorDivision di Honor · Round 7Compleho Deportivo Guillermo Prospero Trinidad

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 12+ matches

Brazil Juniors50%
×Draw19%
Bubali31%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Brazil Juniors
2.58
Bubali
2.01

Brazil Juniors creates 28% more chances

Season form · 12 home / 30 away

creates per match

Brazil Juniors
1.92
Bubali
1.77

allows per match

Brazil Juniors
2.25
Bubali
3.23

finishing

Brazil Juniors+0.00on par
Bubali+0.00on par

Total goals

83%Over
  • Over83
  • Under17

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

80%Yes
  • Yes80
  • No20

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Brazil Juniors ↓

Bubali →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–01%
0–12%
0–22%
0–31%
0–41%
1
1–03%
1–15%
1–25%
1–34%
1–42%
2
2–03%
2–17%
2–27%
2–35%
2–42%
3
3–03%
3–16%
3–26%
3–34%
3–42%
4
4–02%
4–14%
4–24%
4–33%
4–41%

Most likely 2–1 (7%) · grid covers 85% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
99%1%1.5
94%6%2.5
83%17%3.5
67%33%4.5
47%53%

Double chance

Brazil Juniors or draw
69%
Brazil Juniors or Bubali
81%
Draw or Bubali
50%

Winning margin

Brazil Juniors wins by 2+
31%
Bubali wins by 2+
16%

Team goals

Brazil Juniors 1+ goals
92%
Brazil Juniors 2+ goals
72%
Brazil Juniors 3+ goals
47%
Bubali 1+ goals
87%
Bubali 2+ goals
59%
Bubali 3+ goals
32%

Draw no bet

Brazil Juniors (draw refunded)
62%
Bubali (draw refunded)
38%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
74%
Both score & under 3
5%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Brazil Juniors at home — creates 1.92, concedes 2.25 · 12 matches

Bubali away — creates 1.77, concedes 3.23 · 30 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Brazil Juniors attack 1.92 + Bubali defence 3.23 → ÷2 → 2.58

Bubali attack 1.77 + Brazil Juniors defence 2.25 → ÷2 → 2.01

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 50%?"

Brazil Juniors scores more
50%
level
19%
Bubali scores more
31%

Brazil Juniors at 50% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 50% does not mean "Brazil Juniors will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Brazil Juniors vs Bubali

Bubali beat Brazil Juniors 3-1 in Division di Honor on November 23, 2019.

The match was played at Compleho Deportivo Guillermo Prospero Trinidad in Oranjestad.