Bray Wanderers 2–2 Wexford: Result & Stats

Bray Wanderers

FT

2 – 2

HT: 1 – 0

Wexford

D. Lynch 69'

P. Fox 31'

K. Manahan 90+5' (OG)

A. Dobbs 71'

6/27/2022

First Division · Round 22Carlisle Grounds

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 118+ matches

Bray Wanderers48%

×Draw24%

Wexford28%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.2%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Bray WanderersExpected goals in this matchWexford

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.71

1.25

Bray Wanderers

1.71

Wexford

1.25

Bray Wanderers creates 37% more chances

Season form · 121 home / 118 away

1.69

creates per match

1.19

1.30

allows per match

1.72

creates per match

Bray Wanderers

1.69

Wexford

1.19

allows per match

Bray Wanderers

1.30

Wexford

1.72

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Bray Wanderers+0.00on par

Wexford+0.00on par

Total goals

Over57
Under43

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes58
No42

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Bray Wanderers ↓

Wexford →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–05%

0–16%

0–24%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–09%

1–111%

1–27%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–08%

2–19%

2–26%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–04%

3–15%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–02%

4–12%

4–21%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

95%5%1.5

79%21%2.5

57%43%3.5

34%66%4.5

18%82%

Double chance

Bray Wanderers or draw

72%

Bray Wanderers or Wexford

76%

Draw or Wexford

52%

Winning margin

Bray Wanderers wins by 2+

26%

Wexford wins by 2+

12%

Team goals

Bray Wanderers 1+ goals

82%

Bray Wanderers 2+ goals

51%

Bray Wanderers 3+ goals

24%

Wexford 1+ goals

71%

Wexford 2+ goals

36%

Wexford 3+ goals

13%

Draw no bet

Bray Wanderers (draw refunded)

63%

Wexford (draw refunded)

37%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

47%

Both score & under 3

11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Bray Wanderers at home — creates 1.69, concedes 1.30 · 121 matches

Wexford away — creates 1.19, concedes 1.72 · 118 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Bray Wanderers attack 1.69 + Wexford defence 1.72 → ÷2 → 1.71

Wexford attack 1.19 + Bray Wanderers defence 1.30 → ÷2 → 1.25

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 48%?"

Bray Wanderers scores more

48%

level

24%

Wexford scores more

28%

Bray Wanderers at 48% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 48% does not mean "Bray Wanderers will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

31'

P. Fox

65'

A. Dobbs← C. Crowley

65'

T. Considine← A. Friel

69'

D. Lynch

71'

A. Dobbs

72'

V. Labutis← K. Waters

75'

E. Massey

82'

84'

E. Farrell← C. Davis

90+5'

V. Labutis

90+4'

C. Knight← P. Fox

90+4'

K. Manahan← D. Lynch

90+5'

K. ManahanOwn goal

Bray

Wexford

▼

▼

▼

▼

⚽

▼

Fox

McManus

Thompson

⚽

▼

Lynch

Feeney

Manager: P. Devlin

72'▲V. Labutis←▼K. Waters

90+4'▲C. Knight←▼P. Fox

90+4'▲K. Manahan←▼D. Lynch

Bray Wanderers substitutes

LabutisKnightManahanMcPhillipsO'CallaghanByrneKellyAnny-NzekwueO'Neill

Manager: I. Ryan

65'▲A. Dobbs←▼C. Crowley

65'▲T. Considine←▼A. Friel

84'▲E. Farrell←▼C. Davis

Wexford substitutes

DobbsConsidineFarrellBarryScanlonHuntFitzpatrick