Bray Wanderers 0–1 Dundalk: Result & Stats

Bray Wanderers

FT

0 – 1

HT: 0 – 0

Dundalk

D. Horgan 86'

8/18/2023

FAI Cup · 2nd RoundCarlisle Grounds

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 5+ matches

Bray Wanderers18%

×Draw22%

Dundalk60%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.2%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Bray WanderersExpected goals in this matchDundalk

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

0.95

1.92

Bray Wanderers

0.95

Dundalk

1.92

Dundalk creates 102% more chances

Season form · 5 home / 14 away

0.60

creates per match

2.43

1.40

allows per match

1.29

creates per match

Bray Wanderers

0.60

Dundalk

2.43

allows per match

Bray Wanderers

1.40

Dundalk

1.29

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Bray Wanderers+0.00on par

Dundalk+0.00on par

Total goals

Over55
Under45

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes52
No48

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Bray Wanderers ↓

Dundalk →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–06%

0–111%

0–210%

0–37%

0–43%

1

1–05%

1–110%

1–210%

1–36%

1–43%

2

2–03%

2–15%

2–25%

2–33%

2–41%

3

3–01%

3–12%

3–21%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–00%

4–10%

4–20%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 0–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

94%6%1.5

78%22%2.5

55%45%3.5

32%68%4.5

16%84%

Double chance

Bray Wanderers or draw

40%

Bray Wanderers or Dundalk

78%

Draw or Dundalk

82%

Winning margin

Bray Wanderers wins by 2+

6%

Dundalk wins by 2+

35%

Team goals

Bray Wanderers 1+ goals

61%

Bray Wanderers 2+ goals

25%

Bray Wanderers 3+ goals

7%

Dundalk 1+ goals

85%

Dundalk 2+ goals

57%

Dundalk 3+ goals

30%

Draw no bet

Bray Wanderers (draw refunded)

23%

Dundalk (draw refunded)

77%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

42%

Both score & under 3

10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Bray Wanderers at home — creates 0.60, concedes 1.40 · 5 matches

Dundalk away — creates 2.43, concedes 1.29 · 14 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Bray Wanderers attack 0.60 + Dundalk defence 1.29 → ÷2 → 0.95

Dundalk attack 2.43 + Bray Wanderers defence 1.40 → ÷2 → 1.92

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 60%?"

Bray Wanderers scores more

18%

level

22%

Dundalk scores more

60%

Dundalk at 60% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 60% does not mean "Dundalk will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

36'

S. Durrant← R. OKane

68'

H. Groome← C. Crowley

68'

Y. Mahdy← B. Feeney

77'

A. Lewis← J. Yli-Kokko

77'

P. Hoban← J. Martin

81'

D. Chukwu← Y. Mahdy

86'

D. Horgan

89'

J. Walker← L. OSullivan

Bray

Dundalk

▼

⚽

▼

▼

▼

▼

▼

Manager: I. Ryan

68'▲H. Groome←▼C. Crowley

68'▲Y. Mahdy←▼B. Feeney

81'▲D. Chukwu←▼Y. Mahdy

89'▲J. Walker←▼L. OSullivan

Bray Wanderers substitutes

GroomeMahdyChukwuWalkerMoodyKnightWebsterHudsonNolan

Manager: S. O'Donnell

36'▲S. Durrant←▼R. OKane

77'▲A. Lewis←▼J. Yli-Kokko

77'▲P. Hoban←▼J. Martin

Dundalk substitutes

DurrantLewisHobanBoyleElliottLeahySloggettByrneCherrie