Bray Wanderers 1–1 Cork City: Result & Stats

Bray Wanderers

FT

1 – 1

HT: 1 – 0

Cork City

4/24/2026

First Division · Round 12Carlisle Grounds

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 58+ matches

Bray Wanderers32%

×Draw26%

Cork City42%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50%

Always home

44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Bray WanderersExpected goals in this matchCork City

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.22

1.44

Bray Wanderers

1.22

Cork City

1.44

Cork City creates 18% more chances

Season form · 123 home / 58 away

1.70

creates per match

1.59

1.29

allows per match

0.74

creates per match

Bray Wanderers

1.70

Cork City

1.59

allows per match

Bray Wanderers

1.29

Cork City

0.74

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Bray Wanderers+0.00on par

Cork City+0.00on par

Total goals

Under50
Over50

Close call

Both teams score

Yes54
No46

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Bray Wanderers ↓

Cork City →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–07%

0–110%

0–27%

0–33%

0–41%

1

1–09%

1–112%

1–29%

1–34%

1–42%

2

2–05%

2–18%

2–25%

2–33%

2–41%

3

3–02%

3–13%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

93%7%1.5

74%26%2.5

50%50%3.5

28%72%4.5

13%87%

Double chance

Bray Wanderers or draw

58%

Bray Wanderers or Cork City

74%

Draw or Cork City

68%

Winning margin

Bray Wanderers wins by 2+

13%

Cork City wins by 2+

20%

Team goals

Bray Wanderers 1+ goals

70%

Bray Wanderers 2+ goals

34%

Bray Wanderers 3+ goals

12%

Cork City 1+ goals

76%

Cork City 2+ goals

42%

Cork City 3+ goals

18%

Draw no bet

Bray Wanderers (draw refunded)

43%

Cork City (draw refunded)

57%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

41%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Bray Wanderers at home — creates 1.70, concedes 1.29 · 123 matches

Cork City away — creates 1.59, concedes 0.74 · 58 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Bray Wanderers attack 1.70 + Cork City defence 0.74 → ÷2 → 1.22

Cork City attack 1.59 + Bray Wanderers defence 1.29 → ÷2 → 1.44

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 42%?"

Bray Wanderers scores more

32%

level

26%

Cork City scores more

42%

Cork City at 42% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 42% does not mean "Cork City will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff