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Bravos do Maquis FC vs Progresso — Girabola 2019

Bravos do Maquis FC
Bravos do Maquis FC
FT
1 – 0
Progresso
Progresso
12/21/2019GirabolaGirabola · Round 15Estádio Comandante Jones Kufuna Yembe (Moxico)

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 44+ matches

Bravos do Maquis FC60%
×Draw25%
Progresso15%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Bravos do Maquis FC
1.59
Progresso
0.64

Bravos do Maquis FC creates 148% more chances

Season form · 104 home / 44 away

creates per match

Bravos do Maquis FC
1.30
Progresso
0.52

allows per match

Bravos do Maquis FC
0.76
Progresso
1.89

finishing

Bravos do Maquis FC+0.00on par
Progresso+0.00on par

Total goals

62%Under
  • Under62
  • Over38

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

62%No
  • No62
  • Yes38

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Bravos do Maquis FC ↓

Progresso →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–011%
0–17%
0–22%
0–30%
0–40%
1
1–017%
1–111%
1–24%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–014%
2–19%
2–23%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–07%
3–15%
3–21%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–03%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (17%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
89%11%1.5
65%35%2.5
38%62%3.5
19%81%4.5
7%93%

Double chance

Bravos do Maquis FC or draw
85%
Bravos do Maquis FC or Progresso
75%
Draw or Progresso
40%

Winning margin

Bravos do Maquis FC wins by 2+
33%
Progresso wins by 2+
4%

Team goals

Bravos do Maquis FC 1+ goals
80%
Bravos do Maquis FC 2+ goals
47%
Bravos do Maquis FC 3+ goals
21%
Progresso 1+ goals
47%
Progresso 2+ goals
14%
Progresso 3+ goals
3%

Draw no bet

Bravos do Maquis FC (draw refunded)
80%
Progresso (draw refunded)
20%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
27%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Bravos do Maquis FC at home — creates 1.30, concedes 0.76 · 104 matches

Progresso away — creates 0.52, concedes 1.89 · 44 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Bravos do Maquis FC attack 1.30 + Progresso defence 1.89 → ÷2 → 1.59

Progresso attack 0.52 + Bravos do Maquis FC defence 0.76 → ÷2 → 0.64

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 60%?"

Bravos do Maquis FC scores more
60%
level
25%
Progresso scores more
15%

Bravos do Maquis FC at 60% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 60% does not mean "Bravos do Maquis FC will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Bravos do Maquis FC vs Progresso

Bravos do Maquis FC beat Progresso 1-0 in Girabola on December 21, 2019.

The match was played at Estádio Comandante Jones Kufuna Yembe (Moxico).