Scoreo
FootballHockeyTennisBasketballVolleyballHandballBaseballRugbyMMAFormula 1

Bravos do Maquis FC vs Petro de Luanda — Girabola 2019

Bravos do Maquis FC
Bravos do Maquis FC
FT
1 – 1
Petro de Luanda
Petro de Luanda
2/5/2023GirabolaGirabola · Round 16Estádio Comandante Jones Kufuna Yembe

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 104+ matches

Bravos do Maquis FC28%
×Draw28%
Petro de Luanda44%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Bravos do Maquis FC
0.95
Petro de Luanda
1.28

Petro de Luanda creates 35% more chances

Season form · 105 home / 104 away

creates per match

Bravos do Maquis FC
1.30
Petro de Luanda
1.81

allows per match

Bravos do Maquis FC
0.75
Petro de Luanda
0.59

finishing

Bravos do Maquis FC+0.00on par
Petro de Luanda+0.00on par

Total goals

61%Under
  • Under61
  • Over39

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

56%No
  • No56
  • Yes44

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Bravos do Maquis FC ↓

Petro de Luanda →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–011%
0–114%
0–29%
0–34%
0–41%
1
1–010%
1–113%
1–28%
1–34%
1–41%
2
2–05%
2–16%
2–24%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–02%
3–12%
3–21%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–00%
4–10%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 0–1 (14%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
89%11%1.5
65%35%2.5
39%61%3.5
19%81%4.5
8%92%

Double chance

Bravos do Maquis FC or draw
56%
Bravos do Maquis FC or Petro de Luanda
72%
Draw or Petro de Luanda
72%

Winning margin

Bravos do Maquis FC wins by 2+
10%
Petro de Luanda wins by 2+
20%

Team goals

Bravos do Maquis FC 1+ goals
61%
Bravos do Maquis FC 2+ goals
25%
Bravos do Maquis FC 3+ goals
7%
Petro de Luanda 1+ goals
72%
Petro de Luanda 2+ goals
37%
Petro de Luanda 3+ goals
14%

Draw no bet

Bravos do Maquis FC (draw refunded)
39%
Petro de Luanda (draw refunded)
61%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
31%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Bravos do Maquis FC at home — creates 1.30, concedes 0.75 · 105 matches

Petro de Luanda away — creates 1.81, concedes 0.59 · 104 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Bravos do Maquis FC attack 1.30 + Petro de Luanda defence 0.59 → ÷2 → 0.95

Petro de Luanda attack 1.81 + Bravos do Maquis FC defence 0.75 → ÷2 → 1.28

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 44%?"

Bravos do Maquis FC scores more
28%
level
28%
Petro de Luanda scores more
44%

Petro de Luanda at 44% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 44% does not mean "Petro de Luanda will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Bravos do Maquis FC vs Petro de Luanda

Bravos do Maquis FC and Petro de Luanda drew 1-1 in Girabola on February 5, 2023.

The match was played at Estádio Comandante Jones Kufuna Yembe in Moxico.