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Bravos do Maquis FC vs Ferroviário do Huambo — Girabola 2019

Bravos do Maquis FC
Bravos do Maquis FC
FT
3 – 0
Ferroviário do Huambo
Ferroviário do Huambo
2/1/2020GirabolaGirabola · Round 18Estádio Comandante Jones Kufuna Yembe (Moxico)

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 27+ matches

Bravos do Maquis FC62%
×Draw25%
Ferroviário do Huambo13%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Bravos do Maquis FC
1.59
Ferroviário do Huambo
0.58

Bravos do Maquis FC creates 174% more chances

Season form · 105 home / 27 away

creates per match

Bravos do Maquis FC
1.30
Ferroviário do Huambo
0.41

allows per match

Bravos do Maquis FC
0.75
Ferroviário do Huambo
1.89

finishing

Bravos do Maquis FC+0.00on par
Ferroviário do Huambo+0.00on par

Total goals

63%Under
  • Under63
  • Over37

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

65%No
  • No65
  • Yes35

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Bravos do Maquis FC ↓

Ferroviário do Huambo →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–011%
0–17%
0–22%
0–30%
0–40%
1
1–018%
1–111%
1–23%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–014%
2–18%
2–22%
2–30%
2–40%
3
3–08%
3–14%
3–21%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–03%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (18%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
89%11%1.5
64%36%2.5
37%63%3.5
17%83%4.5
7%93%

Double chance

Bravos do Maquis FC or draw
87%
Bravos do Maquis FC or Ferroviário do Huambo
75%
Draw or Ferroviário do Huambo
38%

Winning margin

Bravos do Maquis FC wins by 2+
34%
Ferroviário do Huambo wins by 2+
3%

Team goals

Bravos do Maquis FC 1+ goals
80%
Bravos do Maquis FC 2+ goals
47%
Bravos do Maquis FC 3+ goals
21%
Ferroviário do Huambo 1+ goals
44%
Ferroviário do Huambo 2+ goals
12%
Ferroviário do Huambo 3+ goals
2%

Draw no bet

Bravos do Maquis FC (draw refunded)
82%
Ferroviário do Huambo (draw refunded)
18%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
24%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Bravos do Maquis FC at home — creates 1.30, concedes 0.75 · 105 matches

Ferroviário do Huambo away — creates 0.41, concedes 1.89 · 27 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Bravos do Maquis FC attack 1.30 + Ferroviário do Huambo defence 1.89 → ÷2 → 1.59

Ferroviário do Huambo attack 0.41 + Bravos do Maquis FC defence 0.75 → ÷2 → 0.58

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 62%?"

Bravos do Maquis FC scores more
62%
level
25%
Ferroviário do Huambo scores more
13%

Bravos do Maquis FC at 62% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 62% does not mean "Bravos do Maquis FC will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Bravos do Maquis FC vs Ferroviário do Huambo

Bravos do Maquis FC beat Ferroviário do Huambo 3-0 in Girabola on February 1, 2020.

The match was played at Estádio Comandante Jones Kufuna Yembe (Moxico).