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Bravos do Maquis FC vs Cuando Cubango — Girabola 2019

Bravos do Maquis FC
Bravos do Maquis FC
CANC
14:00
Cuando Cubango
Cuando Cubango
3/11/2023GirabolaGirabola · Round 22Estádio Comandante Jones Kufuna Yembe

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 50+ matches

Bravos do Maquis FC52%
×Draw27%
Cuando Cubango21%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Bravos do Maquis FC
1.40
Cuando Cubango
0.78

Bravos do Maquis FC creates 79% more chances

Season form · 105 home / 50 away

creates per match

Bravos do Maquis FC
1.30
Cuando Cubango
0.80

allows per match

Bravos do Maquis FC
0.75
Cuando Cubango
1.50

finishing

Bravos do Maquis FC+0.00on par
Cuando Cubango+0.00on par

Total goals

63%Under
  • Under63
  • Over37

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

59%No
  • No59
  • Yes41

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Bravos do Maquis FC ↓

Cuando Cubango →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–011%
0–19%
0–23%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–016%
1–112%
1–25%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–011%
2–19%
2–23%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–05%
3–14%
3–22%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (16%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
89%11%1.5
64%36%2.5
37%63%3.5
18%82%4.5
7%93%

Double chance

Bravos do Maquis FC or draw
79%
Bravos do Maquis FC or Cuando Cubango
73%
Draw or Cuando Cubango
48%

Winning margin

Bravos do Maquis FC wins by 2+
25%
Cuando Cubango wins by 2+
6%

Team goals

Bravos do Maquis FC 1+ goals
75%
Bravos do Maquis FC 2+ goals
41%
Bravos do Maquis FC 3+ goals
17%
Cuando Cubango 1+ goals
54%
Cuando Cubango 2+ goals
18%
Cuando Cubango 3+ goals
4%

Draw no bet

Bravos do Maquis FC (draw refunded)
71%
Cuando Cubango (draw refunded)
29%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
28%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Bravos do Maquis FC at home — creates 1.30, concedes 0.75 · 105 matches

Cuando Cubango away — creates 0.80, concedes 1.50 · 50 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Bravos do Maquis FC attack 1.30 + Cuando Cubango defence 1.50 → ÷2 → 1.40

Cuando Cubango attack 0.80 + Bravos do Maquis FC defence 0.75 → ÷2 → 0.78

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 52%?"

Bravos do Maquis FC scores more
52%
level
27%
Cuando Cubango scores more
21%

Bravos do Maquis FC at 52% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 52% does not mean "Bravos do Maquis FC will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Preview: Bravos do Maquis FC host Cuando Cubango

March 11, 2023: Bravos do Maquis FC take on Cuando Cubango in Girabola. Track every goal, card, and substitution live on Scoreo as the action unfolds.

Bravos do Maquis FC host Cuando Cubango at Estádio Comandante Jones Kufuna Yembe.

Submit your prediction below — exact score, 1X2, total goals, and both teams to score. Earn XP for correct picks.