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Bravos do Maquis FC vs ASA — Girabola 2019

Bravos do Maquis FC
Bravos do Maquis FC
FT
0 – 1
ASA
ASA
6/25/2017GirabolaGirabola · Round 17Estádio Comandante Jones Kufuna Yembe

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 24+ matches

Bravos do Maquis FC53%
×Draw29%
ASA17%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Bravos do Maquis FC
1.29
ASA
0.60

Bravos do Maquis FC creates 115% more chances

Season form · 112 home / 24 away

creates per match

Bravos do Maquis FC
1.29
ASA
0.42

allows per match

Bravos do Maquis FC
0.79
ASA
1.29

finishing

Bravos do Maquis FC+0.00on par
ASA+0.00on par

Total goals

71%Under
  • Under71
  • Over29

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

67%No
  • No67
  • Yes33

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Bravos do Maquis FC ↓

ASA →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–015%
0–19%
0–23%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–019%
1–112%
1–24%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–013%
2–18%
2–22%
2–30%
2–40%
3
3–05%
3–13%
3–21%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–11%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (19%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
85%15%1.5
56%44%2.5
29%71%3.5
12%88%4.5
4%96%

Double chance

Bravos do Maquis FC or draw
83%
Bravos do Maquis FC or ASA
71%
Draw or ASA
47%

Winning margin

Bravos do Maquis FC wins by 2+
25%
ASA wins by 2+
4%

Team goals

Bravos do Maquis FC 1+ goals
72%
Bravos do Maquis FC 2+ goals
37%
Bravos do Maquis FC 3+ goals
14%
ASA 1+ goals
45%
ASA 2+ goals
12%
ASA 3+ goals
2%

Draw no bet

Bravos do Maquis FC (draw refunded)
76%
ASA (draw refunded)
24%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
21%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Bravos do Maquis FC at home — creates 1.29, concedes 0.79 · 112 matches

ASA away — creates 0.42, concedes 1.29 · 24 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Bravos do Maquis FC attack 1.29 + ASA defence 1.29 → ÷2 → 1.29

ASA attack 0.42 + Bravos do Maquis FC defence 0.79 → ÷2 → 0.60

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 53%?"

Bravos do Maquis FC scores more
53%
level
29%
ASA scores more
17%

Bravos do Maquis FC at 53% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 53% does not mean "Bravos do Maquis FC will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Bravos do Maquis FC vs ASA

ASA beat Bravos do Maquis FC 1-0 in Girabola on June 25, 2017.

The match was played at Estádio Comandante Jones Kufuna Yembe in Moxico.