Royal Excel Mouscron vs Standard Liege — Jupiler Pro League 2018
Match Prediction
Statistical Prediction
Based on goals from last 47+ matches
Royal Excel Mouscron43%
Standard Liege30%✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.
Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct
Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.
Expected goals in this match
What is xG?
Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.
The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.
Royal Excel Mouscron creates 24% more chances
Season form · 47 home / 151 away
creates per match
allows per match
finishing
Total goals
- Under55
- Over45
Fewer than 3 goals likely
Both teams score
- No50
- Yes50
Close call
Score probability
Probability of each scoreline, %
Royal Excel Mouscron ↓
Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines
More markets
Total goals
Double chance
Winning margin
Team goals
Draw no bet
Combos
Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.
How is this calculated?
Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.
Recent form of each side
Royal Excel Mouscron at home — creates 1.19, concedes 1.04 · 47 matches
Standard Liege away — creates 1.18, concedes 1.56 · 151 matches
⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.
Expected goals for this match
Royal Excel Mouscron attack 1.19 + Standard Liege defence 1.56 → ÷2 → 1.38
Standard Liege attack 1.18 + Royal Excel Mouscron defence 1.04 → ÷2 → 1.11
Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.
Chance of every scoreline
From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.
The answer to "why 43%?"
Royal Excel Mouscron at 43% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.
What the model can't see
It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:
- injuries & suspensions
- the matchday lineup
- motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
- weather & pitch condition
- in-game coaching decisions
So 43% does not mean "Royal Excel Mouscron will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."
Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.
Match Events
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Club Brugge KVStandard Liege
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Gent
Antwerp
St. Truiden
Kortrijk
CharleroiRoyal Excel Mouscron
Zulte Waregem
AS Eupen
Cercle Brugge
Oostende
Waasland-beveren
LokerenIf points are equal: 1. Goal difference 2. Goals scored 3. Head-to-head
P = Played · W = Won · D = Drawn · L = Lost · GF = Goals for · GA = Goals against · GD = Goal difference · Pts = Points
Statistics
Royal Excel Mouscron host Standard Liege on Sunday, 8 December 2019 at 13:30. The match is part of the Jupiler Pro League 2018/2019 season.
Jupiler Pro League: Royal Excel Mouscron 2–2 Standard Liege
Royal Excel Mouscron and Standard Liege drew 2-2 in Jupiler Pro League on December 8, 2019.
Goals: R. Emond (6'), S. Perica (44', 81'), M. Lestienne (90+4').
The match was played at Stade Le Canonnier in Mouscron.