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Bravo vs Olimpija Ljubljana — 1. SNL 2026

Bravo
Bravo
FT
2 – 1
HT: 1 – 0
Olimpija Ljubljana
Olimpija Ljubljana
12/7/20251. SNL1. SNL · Round 18Športni Park Šiška

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 124+ matches

Bravo34%
×Draw28%
Olimpija Ljubljana38%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50%
Always home
44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Bravo
1.17
Olimpija Ljubljana
1.25

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 124 home / 124 away

creates per match

Bravo
1.24
Olimpija Ljubljana
1.49

allows per match

Bravo
1.02
Olimpija Ljubljana
1.10

finishing

Bravo+0.00on par
Olimpija Ljubljana+0.00on par

Total goals

56%Under
  • Under56
  • Over44

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

51%No
  • No51
  • Yes49

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Bravo ↓

Olimpija Ljubljana →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–09%
0–111%
0–27%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–010%
1–113%
1–28%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–06%
2–18%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–02%
3–13%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
91%9%1.5
70%30%2.5
44%56%3.5
23%77%4.5
10%90%

Double chance

Bravo or draw
62%
Bravo or Olimpija Ljubljana
72%
Draw or Olimpija Ljubljana
66%

Winning margin

Bravo wins by 2+
14%
Olimpija Ljubljana wins by 2+
17%

Team goals

Bravo 1+ goals
69%
Bravo 2+ goals
33%
Bravo 3+ goals
11%
Olimpija Ljubljana 1+ goals
71%
Olimpija Ljubljana 2+ goals
36%
Olimpija Ljubljana 3+ goals
13%

Draw no bet

Bravo (draw refunded)
47%
Olimpija Ljubljana (draw refunded)
53%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
36%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Bravo at home — creates 1.24, concedes 1.02 · 124 matches

Olimpija Ljubljana away — creates 1.49, concedes 1.10 · 124 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Bravo attack 1.24 + Olimpija Ljubljana defence 1.10 → ÷2 → 1.17

Olimpija Ljubljana attack 1.49 + Bravo defence 1.02 → ÷2 → 1.25

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 38%?"

Bravo scores more
34%
level
28%
Olimpija Ljubljana scores more
38%

Olimpija Ljubljana at 38% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 38% does not mean "Olimpija Ljubljana will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

1. SNL: Bravo 2–1 Olimpija Ljubljana

Bravo beat Olimpija Ljubljana 2-1 in 1. SNL on December 7, 2025.

The match was played at Športni Park Šiška in Ljubljana.