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Bravo vs Mura — 1. SNL 2026

Bravo
Bravo
FT
1 – 1
HT: 0 – 1
Mura
Mura
4/28/20251. SNL1. SNL · Round 32Športni Park Šiška

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 125+ matches

Bravo43%
×Draw27%
Mura30%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Bravo
1.36
Mura
1.10

Bravo creates 24% more chances

Season form · 125 home / 126 away

creates per match

Bravo
1.26
Mura
1.16

allows per match

Bravo
1.04
Mura
1.47

finishing

Bravo+0.00on par
Mura+0.00on par

Total goals

55%Under
  • Under55
  • Over45

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

50%No
  • No50
  • Yes50

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Bravo ↓

Mura →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–09%
0–19%
0–25%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–012%
1–113%
1–27%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–08%
2–19%
2–25%
2–32%
2–40%
3
3–04%
3–14%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
91%9%1.5
70%30%2.5
45%55%3.5
23%77%4.5
10%90%

Double chance

Bravo or draw
70%
Bravo or Mura
73%
Draw or Mura
57%

Winning margin

Bravo wins by 2+
20%
Mura wins by 2+
12%

Team goals

Bravo 1+ goals
74%
Bravo 2+ goals
39%
Bravo 3+ goals
16%
Mura 1+ goals
67%
Mura 2+ goals
30%
Mura 3+ goals
10%

Draw no bet

Bravo (draw refunded)
59%
Mura (draw refunded)
41%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
37%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Bravo at home — creates 1.26, concedes 1.04 · 125 matches

Mura away — creates 1.16, concedes 1.47 · 126 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Bravo attack 1.26 + Mura defence 1.47 → ÷2 → 1.36

Mura attack 1.16 + Bravo defence 1.04 → ÷2 → 1.10

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 43%?"

Bravo scores more
43%
level
27%
Mura scores more
30%

Bravo at 43% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 43% does not mean "Bravo will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

1. SNL: Bravo 1–1 Mura

Bravo and Mura drew 1-1 in 1. SNL on April 28, 2025.

The match was played at Športni Park Šiška in Ljubljana.