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Bravo vs Celje — 1. SNL 2026

Bravo
Bravo
FT
0 – 5
HT: 0 – 4
Celje
Celje
8/24/20251. SNL1. SNL · Round 6Stadion Stožice

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 124+ matches

Bravo33%
×Draw27%
Celje41%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Bravo
1.17
Celje
1.34

Celje creates 15% more chances

Season form · 124 home / 125 away

creates per match

Bravo
1.24
Celje
1.67

allows per match

Bravo
1.02
Celje
1.10

finishing

Bravo+0.00on par
Celje+0.00on par

Total goals

54%Under
  • Under54
  • Over46

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

51%Yes
  • Yes51
  • No49

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Bravo ↓

Celje →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–08%
0–111%
0–27%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–010%
1–113%
1–29%
1–34%
1–41%
2
2–06%
2–17%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–02%
3–13%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
92%8%1.5
71%29%2.5
46%54%3.5
24%76%4.5
11%89%

Double chance

Bravo or draw
59%
Bravo or Celje
73%
Draw or Celje
67%

Winning margin

Bravo wins by 2+
13%
Celje wins by 2+
19%

Team goals

Bravo 1+ goals
69%
Bravo 2+ goals
33%
Bravo 3+ goals
11%
Celje 1+ goals
74%
Celje 2+ goals
39%
Celje 3+ goals
15%

Draw no bet

Bravo (draw refunded)
44%
Celje (draw refunded)
56%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
38%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Bravo at home — creates 1.24, concedes 1.02 · 124 matches

Celje away — creates 1.67, concedes 1.10 · 125 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Bravo attack 1.24 + Celje defence 1.10 → ÷2 → 1.17

Celje attack 1.67 + Bravo defence 1.02 → ÷2 → 1.34

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 41%?"

Bravo scores more
33%
level
27%
Celje scores more
41%

Celje at 41% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 41% does not mean "Celje will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

1. SNL: Bravo 0–5 Celje

Celje beat Bravo 5-0 in 1. SNL on August 24, 2025.

The match was played at Stadion Stožice in Ljubljana.