Brattvåg 2–1 Aalesund II: Result & Stats

Brattvåg

FT

2 – 1

HT: 1 – 1

Aalesund II

D. Sissoko 80'

M. Refsnes 44'

T. Murray 15'

9/24/2023

2. Division - Group 1 · Group 1 - 20Brattvåg kunstgress

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 13+ matches

Brattvåg59%

×Draw21%

Aalesund II20%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

BrattvågExpected goals in this matchAalesund II

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

2.08

1.12

Brattvåg

2.08

Aalesund II

1.12

Brattvåg creates 86% more chances

Season form · 80 home / 13 away

2.23

creates per match

0.85

1.39

allows per match

1.92

creates per match

Brattvåg

2.23

Aalesund II

0.85

allows per match

Brattvåg

1.39

Aalesund II

1.92

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Brattvåg+0.00on par

Aalesund II+0.00on par

Total goals

Over62
Under38

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes59
No41

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Brattvåg ↓

Aalesund II →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–04%

0–15%

0–23%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–09%

1–110%

1–25%

1–32%

1–41%

2

2–09%

2–110%

2–26%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–06%

3–17%

3–24%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–03%

4–14%

4–22%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (10%) · grid covers 94% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

96%4%1.5

83%17%2.5

62%38%3.5

39%61%4.5

21%79%

Double chance

Brattvåg or draw

80%

Brattvåg or Aalesund II

79%

Draw or Aalesund II

41%

Winning margin

Brattvåg wins by 2+

36%

Aalesund II wins by 2+

7%

Team goals

Brattvåg 1+ goals

87%

Brattvåg 2+ goals

61%

Brattvåg 3+ goals

34%

Aalesund II 1+ goals

67%

Aalesund II 2+ goals

31%

Aalesund II 3+ goals

10%

Draw no bet

Brattvåg (draw refunded)

75%

Aalesund II (draw refunded)

25%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

49%

Both score & under 3

10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Brattvåg at home — creates 2.23, concedes 1.39 · 80 matches

Aalesund II away — creates 0.85, concedes 1.92 · 13 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Brattvåg attack 2.23 + Aalesund II defence 1.92 → ÷2 → 2.08

Aalesund II attack 0.85 + Brattvåg defence 1.39 → ÷2 → 1.12

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 59%?"

Brattvåg scores more

59%

level

21%

Aalesund II scores more

20%

Brattvåg at 59% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 59% does not mean "Brattvåg will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

15'

44'

46'

60'

72'

D. Sissoko← B. Fjeldsted

80'

P. Fosu-Mensah← H. Breivik

80'

84'

84'

87'

89'

B. Leeflang← A. Obiech

Brattvåg

Aalesund

26

Larsen

5

⚽

▼

33

21

4

30

8

3

▼

Hagen

6

▼

Selnaes

25

▼

32

1

19

2

▼

Breivik

22

⚽

Refsnes

4

Syversen

10

Dahle

18

▼

Fylling

21

Halvorsen

14

Flem

16

▼

Obiech

23

▼

Fjeldsted

Manager: R. Skovdahl

46'▲S. Beite←▼J. Fylling

72'▲D. Sissoko←▼B. Fjeldsted

80'▲P. Fosu-Mensah←▼H. Breivik

89'▲B. Leeflang←▼A. Obiech

Brattvåg substitutes

27Beite13Sissoko6Fosu-Mensah5Leeflang8Rekdal20Irving28Bubahe12Løseth

Manager: T. Aarøy

60'▲S. Roth←▼J. Selnaes

84'▲J. Norvik←▼T. Murray

84'▲H.Wdowiak←▼S. Kilen

87'▲M. Hjelle←▼I. Hagen

Aalesund II substitutes

16Roth17Norvik31H.Wdowiak11Hjelle2Giskegjerde13Bjørnevik