Bratstvo Prigrevica 3–1 Sloga Čonoplja

Bratstvo Prigrevica

FT

3 – 1

Sloga Čonoplja

10/31/2020

Srpska Liga - Vojvodina · Vojvodina - 15Prigrevica Stadion

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 43+ matches

Bratstvo Prigrevica58%

×Draw22%

Sloga Čonoplja20%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Bratstvo PrigrevicaExpected goals in this matchSloga Čonoplja

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.90

1.03

Bratstvo Prigrevica

1.90

Sloga Čonoplja

1.03

Bratstvo Prigrevica creates 84% more chances

Season form · 43 home / 49 away

1.72

creates per match

1.04

1.02

allows per match

2.08

creates per match

Bratstvo Prigrevica

1.72

Sloga Čonoplja

1.04

allows per match

Bratstvo Prigrevica

1.02

Sloga Čonoplja

2.08

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Bratstvo Prigrevica+0.00on par

Sloga Čonoplja+0.00on par

Total goals

Over56
Under44

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes55
No45

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Bratstvo Prigrevica ↓

Sloga Čonoplja →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–05%

0–16%

0–23%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–010%

1–110%

1–25%

1–32%

1–40%

2

2–010%

2–110%

2–25%

2–32%

2–40%

3

3–06%

3–16%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–03%

4–13%

4–22%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (10%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

95%5%1.5

79%21%2.5

56%44%3.5

33%67%4.5

17%83%

Double chance

Bratstvo Prigrevica or draw

80%

Bratstvo Prigrevica or Sloga Čonoplja

78%

Draw or Sloga Čonoplja

42%

Winning margin

Bratstvo Prigrevica wins by 2+

34%

Sloga Čonoplja wins by 2+

7%

Team goals

Bratstvo Prigrevica 1+ goals

85%

Bratstvo Prigrevica 2+ goals

56%

Bratstvo Prigrevica 3+ goals

29%

Sloga Čonoplja 1+ goals

64%

Sloga Čonoplja 2+ goals

28%

Sloga Čonoplja 3+ goals

9%

Draw no bet

Bratstvo Prigrevica (draw refunded)

74%

Sloga Čonoplja (draw refunded)

26%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

44%

Both score & under 3

10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Bratstvo Prigrevica at home — creates 1.72, concedes 1.02 · 43 matches

Sloga Čonoplja away — creates 1.04, concedes 2.08 · 49 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Bratstvo Prigrevica attack 1.72 + Sloga Čonoplja defence 2.08 → ÷2 → 1.90

Sloga Čonoplja attack 1.04 + Bratstvo Prigrevica defence 1.02 → ÷2 → 1.03

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 58%?"

Bratstvo Prigrevica scores more

58%

level

22%

Sloga Čonoplja scores more

20%

Bratstvo Prigrevica at 58% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 58% does not mean "Bratstvo Prigrevica will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff