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Bratstvo Prigrevica vs Kozara — Srpska Liga - Vojvodina 2019

Bratstvo Prigrevica
Bratstvo Prigrevica
FT
2 – 4
Kozara
Kozara
9/16/2020Srpska Liga - VojvodinaSrpska Liga - Vojvodina · Vojvodina - 7Prigrevica Stadion

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 28+ matches

Bratstvo Prigrevica66%
×Draw20%
Kozara14%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Bratstvo Prigrevica
2.11
Kozara
0.86

Bratstvo Prigrevica creates 145% more chances

Season form · 43 home / 28 away

creates per match

Bratstvo Prigrevica
1.72
Kozara
0.71

allows per match

Bratstvo Prigrevica
1.02
Kozara
2.50

finishing

Bratstvo Prigrevica+0.00on par
Kozara+0.00on par

Total goals

57%Over
  • Over57
  • Under43

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

51%Yes
  • Yes51
  • No49

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Bratstvo Prigrevica ↓

Kozara →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–05%
0–14%
0–22%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–011%
1–19%
1–24%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–011%
2–110%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–08%
3–17%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–04%
4–14%
4–22%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (11%) · grid covers 94% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
95%5%1.5
80%20%2.5
57%43%3.5
34%66%4.5
17%83%

Double chance

Bratstvo Prigrevica or draw
86%
Bratstvo Prigrevica or Kozara
80%
Draw or Kozara
34%

Winning margin

Bratstvo Prigrevica wins by 2+
42%
Kozara wins by 2+
4%

Team goals

Bratstvo Prigrevica 1+ goals
88%
Bratstvo Prigrevica 2+ goals
62%
Bratstvo Prigrevica 3+ goals
35%
Kozara 1+ goals
58%
Kozara 2+ goals
21%
Kozara 3+ goals
6%

Draw no bet

Bratstvo Prigrevica (draw refunded)
82%
Kozara (draw refunded)
18%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
41%
Both score & under 3
9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Bratstvo Prigrevica at home — creates 1.72, concedes 1.02 · 43 matches

Kozara away — creates 0.71, concedes 2.50 · 28 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Bratstvo Prigrevica attack 1.72 + Kozara defence 2.50 → ÷2 → 2.11

Kozara attack 0.71 + Bratstvo Prigrevica defence 1.02 → ÷2 → 0.86

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 66%?"

Bratstvo Prigrevica scores more
66%
level
20%
Kozara scores more
14%

Bratstvo Prigrevica at 66% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 66% does not mean "Bratstvo Prigrevica will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Srpska Liga - Vojvodina: Bratstvo Prigrevica 2–4 Kozara

Kozara beat Bratstvo Prigrevica 4-2 in Srpska Liga - Vojvodina on September 16, 2020.

The match was played at Prigrevica Stadion in Prigrevica.