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Bratstvo Prigrevica vs Kikinda — Srpska Liga - Vojvodina 2019

Bratstvo Prigrevica
Bratstvo Prigrevica
FT
3 – 1
Kikinda
Kikinda
11/6/2021Srpska Liga - VojvodinaSrpska Liga - Vojvodina · Vojvodina - 13Stadion FK Feniks 1995

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 43+ matches

Bratstvo Prigrevica57%
×Draw23%
Kikinda20%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Bratstvo Prigrevica
1.81
Kikinda
0.98

Bratstvo Prigrevica creates 85% more chances

Season form · 43 home / 60 away

creates per match

Bratstvo Prigrevica
1.72
Kikinda
0.95

allows per match

Bratstvo Prigrevica
1.02
Kikinda
1.90

finishing

Bratstvo Prigrevica+0.00on par
Kikinda+0.00on par

Total goals

53%Over
  • Over53
  • Under47

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

52%Yes
  • Yes52
  • No48

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Bratstvo Prigrevica ↓

Kikinda →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–06%
0–16%
0–23%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–011%
1–111%
1–25%
1–32%
1–40%
2
2–010%
2–110%
2–25%
2–32%
2–40%
3
3–06%
3–16%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–03%
4–13%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
94%6%1.5
77%23%2.5
53%47%3.5
30%70%4.5
15%85%

Double chance

Bratstvo Prigrevica or draw
80%
Bratstvo Prigrevica or Kikinda
77%
Draw or Kikinda
43%

Winning margin

Bratstvo Prigrevica wins by 2+
32%
Kikinda wins by 2+
7%

Team goals

Bratstvo Prigrevica 1+ goals
84%
Bratstvo Prigrevica 2+ goals
54%
Bratstvo Prigrevica 3+ goals
27%
Kikinda 1+ goals
62%
Kikinda 2+ goals
26%
Kikinda 3+ goals
8%

Draw no bet

Bratstvo Prigrevica (draw refunded)
74%
Kikinda (draw refunded)
26%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
41%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Bratstvo Prigrevica at home — creates 1.72, concedes 1.02 · 43 matches

Kikinda away — creates 0.95, concedes 1.90 · 60 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Bratstvo Prigrevica attack 1.72 + Kikinda defence 1.90 → ÷2 → 1.81

Kikinda attack 0.95 + Bratstvo Prigrevica defence 1.02 → ÷2 → 0.98

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 57%?"

Bratstvo Prigrevica scores more
57%
level
23%
Kikinda scores more
20%

Bratstvo Prigrevica at 57% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 57% does not mean "Bratstvo Prigrevica will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Srpska Liga - Vojvodina: Bratstvo Prigrevica 3–1 Kikinda

Bratstvo Prigrevica beat Kikinda 3-1 in Srpska Liga - Vojvodina on November 6, 2021.

The match was played at Stadion FK Feniks 1995 in Stara Pazova.