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Bratstvo Prigrevica vs Hajduk 1912 Kula — Srpska Liga - Vojvodina 2019

Bratstvo Prigrevica
Bratstvo Prigrevica
FT
1 – 3
HT: 0 – 2
Hajduk 1912 Kula
Hajduk 1912 Kula
5/28/2022Srpska Liga - VojvodinaSrpska Liga - Vojvodina · Vojvodina - 29Stadion FK Feniks 1995

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 43+ matches

Bratstvo Prigrevica52%
×Draw24%
Hajduk 1912 Kula24%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Bratstvo Prigrevica
1.74
Hajduk 1912 Kula
1.10

Bratstvo Prigrevica creates 58% more chances

Season form · 43 home / 72 away

creates per match

Bratstvo Prigrevica
1.72
Hajduk 1912 Kula
1.18

allows per match

Bratstvo Prigrevica
1.02
Hajduk 1912 Kula
1.76

finishing

Bratstvo Prigrevica+0.00on par
Hajduk 1912 Kula+0.00on par

Total goals

54%Over
  • Over54
  • Under46

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

55%Yes
  • Yes55
  • No45

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Bratstvo Prigrevica ↓

Hajduk 1912 Kula →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–06%
0–16%
0–24%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–010%
1–111%
1–26%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–09%
2–110%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–05%
3–16%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
94%6%1.5
78%22%2.5
54%46%3.5
32%68%4.5
16%84%

Double chance

Bratstvo Prigrevica or draw
76%
Bratstvo Prigrevica or Hajduk 1912 Kula
76%
Draw or Hajduk 1912 Kula
48%

Winning margin

Bratstvo Prigrevica wins by 2+
29%
Hajduk 1912 Kula wins by 2+
9%

Team goals

Bratstvo Prigrevica 1+ goals
82%
Bratstvo Prigrevica 2+ goals
52%
Bratstvo Prigrevica 3+ goals
25%
Hajduk 1912 Kula 1+ goals
67%
Hajduk 1912 Kula 2+ goals
30%
Hajduk 1912 Kula 3+ goals
10%

Draw no bet

Bratstvo Prigrevica (draw refunded)
69%
Hajduk 1912 Kula (draw refunded)
31%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
44%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Bratstvo Prigrevica at home — creates 1.72, concedes 1.02 · 43 matches

Hajduk 1912 Kula away — creates 1.18, concedes 1.76 · 72 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Bratstvo Prigrevica attack 1.72 + Hajduk 1912 Kula defence 1.76 → ÷2 → 1.74

Hajduk 1912 Kula attack 1.18 + Bratstvo Prigrevica defence 1.02 → ÷2 → 1.10

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 52%?"

Bratstvo Prigrevica scores more
52%
level
24%
Hajduk 1912 Kula scores more
24%

Bratstvo Prigrevica at 52% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 52% does not mean "Bratstvo Prigrevica will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Bratstvo Prigrevica vs Hajduk 1912 Kula

Hajduk 1912 Kula beat Bratstvo Prigrevica 3-1 in Srpska Liga - Vojvodina on May 28, 2022.

The match was played at Stadion FK Feniks 1995 in Stara Pazova.