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Bratstvo Gračanica vs Zvijezda Gradačac — 1st League - FBiH 2019

Bratstvo Gračanica
Bratstvo Gračanica
FT
1 – 1
HT: 0 – 0
Zvijezda Gradačac
Zvijezda Gradačac
11/9/20241st League - FBiH1st League - FBiH · FBiH - 13Gradski stadion Luke

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 82+ matches

Bratstvo Gračanica52%
×Draw24%
Zvijezda Gradačac24%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Bratstvo Gračanica
1.73
Zvijezda Gradačac
1.10

Bratstvo Gračanica creates 57% more chances

Season form · 96 home / 82 away

creates per match

Bratstvo Gračanica
1.81
Zvijezda Gradačac
1.02

allows per match

Bratstvo Gračanica
1.18
Zvijezda Gradačac
1.65

finishing

Bratstvo Gračanica+0.00on par
Zvijezda Gradačac+0.00on par

Total goals

54%Over
  • Over54
  • Under46

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

55%Yes
  • Yes55
  • No45

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Bratstvo Gračanica ↓

Zvijezda Gradačac →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–06%
0–17%
0–24%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–010%
1–111%
1–26%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–09%
2–110%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–05%
3–16%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
94%6%1.5
77%23%2.5
54%46%3.5
31%69%4.5
16%84%

Double chance

Bratstvo Gračanica or draw
76%
Bratstvo Gračanica or Zvijezda Gradačac
76%
Draw or Zvijezda Gradačac
48%

Winning margin

Bratstvo Gračanica wins by 2+
28%
Zvijezda Gradačac wins by 2+
9%

Team goals

Bratstvo Gračanica 1+ goals
82%
Bratstvo Gračanica 2+ goals
52%
Bratstvo Gračanica 3+ goals
25%
Zvijezda Gradačac 1+ goals
67%
Zvijezda Gradačac 2+ goals
30%
Zvijezda Gradačac 3+ goals
10%

Draw no bet

Bratstvo Gračanica (draw refunded)
68%
Zvijezda Gradačac (draw refunded)
32%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
44%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Bratstvo Gračanica at home — creates 1.81, concedes 1.18 · 96 matches

Zvijezda Gradačac away — creates 1.02, concedes 1.65 · 82 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Bratstvo Gračanica attack 1.81 + Zvijezda Gradačac defence 1.65 → ÷2 → 1.73

Zvijezda Gradačac attack 1.02 + Bratstvo Gračanica defence 1.18 → ÷2 → 1.10

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 52%?"

Bratstvo Gračanica scores more
52%
level
24%
Zvijezda Gradačac scores more
24%

Bratstvo Gračanica at 52% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 52% does not mean "Bratstvo Gračanica will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

1st League - FBiH: Bratstvo Gračanica 1–1 Zvijezda Gradačac

Bratstvo Gračanica and Zvijezda Gradačac drew 1-1 in 1st League - FBiH on November 9, 2024.

The match was played at Gradski stadion Luke in Gračanica.