Bratstvo Gračanica 2–3 Olimpik Sarajevo

Bratstvo Gračanica

FT

2 – 3

Olimpik Sarajevo

10/19/2019

1st League - FBiH · FBiH - 11Gradski stadion Luke

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 8+ matches

Bratstvo Gračanica40%

×Draw25%

Olimpik Sarajevo34%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.3%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Bratstvo GračanicaExpected goals in this matchOlimpik Sarajevo

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.47

1.34

Bratstvo Gračanica

1.47

Olimpik Sarajevo

1.34

Bratstvo Gračanica creates 10% more chances

Season form · 96 home / 8 away

1.81

creates per match

1.50

1.18

allows per match

1.13

creates per match

Bratstvo Gračanica

1.81

Olimpik Sarajevo

1.50

allows per match

Bratstvo Gračanica

1.18

Olimpik Sarajevo

1.13

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Bratstvo Gračanica+0.00on par

Olimpik Sarajevo+0.00on par

Total goals

Over53
Under47

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes57
No43

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Bratstvo Gračanica ↓

Olimpik Sarajevo →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–06%

0–18%

0–25%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–09%

1–112%

1–28%

1–34%

1–41%

2

2–07%

2–19%

2–26%

2–33%

2–41%

3

3–03%

3–14%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–12%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

94%6%1.5

77%23%2.5

53%47%3.5

31%69%4.5

15%85%

Double chance

Bratstvo Gračanica or draw

66%

Bratstvo Gračanica or Olimpik Sarajevo

75%

Draw or Olimpik Sarajevo

60%

Winning margin

Bratstvo Gračanica wins by 2+

19%

Olimpik Sarajevo wins by 2+

15%

Team goals

Bratstvo Gračanica 1+ goals

77%

Bratstvo Gračanica 2+ goals

43%

Bratstvo Gračanica 3+ goals

18%

Olimpik Sarajevo 1+ goals

74%

Olimpik Sarajevo 2+ goals

39%

Olimpik Sarajevo 3+ goals

15%

Draw no bet

Bratstvo Gračanica (draw refunded)

54%

Olimpik Sarajevo (draw refunded)

46%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

45%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Bratstvo Gračanica at home — creates 1.81, concedes 1.18 · 96 matches

Olimpik Sarajevo away — creates 1.50, concedes 1.13 · 8 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Bratstvo Gračanica attack 1.81 + Olimpik Sarajevo defence 1.13 → ÷2 → 1.47

Olimpik Sarajevo attack 1.50 + Bratstvo Gračanica defence 1.18 → ÷2 → 1.34

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 40%?"

Bratstvo Gračanica scores more

40%

level

25%

Olimpik Sarajevo scores more

34%

Bratstvo Gračanica at 40% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 40% does not mean "Bratstvo Gračanica will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff