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Brașov Steagul Renaște vs Unirea Constanța — Liga II 2018

Brașov Steagul Renaște
Brașov Steagul Renaște
FT
5 – 2
HT: 3 – 1
Unirea Constanța
Unirea Constanța
3/4/2023Liga IILiga II · Round 18Stadionul Tineretului

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 16+ matches

Brașov Steagul Renaște73%
×Draw15%
Unirea Constanța12%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Brașov Steagul Renaște
2.84
Unirea Constanța
1.10

Brașov Steagul Renaște creates 158% more chances

Season form · 16 home / 25 away

creates per match

Brașov Steagul Renaște
2.44
Unirea Constanța
1.08

allows per match

Brașov Steagul Renaște
1.13
Unirea Constanța
3.24

finishing

Brașov Steagul Renaște+0.00on par
Unirea Constanța+0.00on par

Total goals

75%Over
  • Over75
  • Under25

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

63%Yes
  • Yes63
  • No37

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Brașov Steagul Renaște ↓

Unirea Constanța →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–02%
0–12%
0–21%
0–30%
0–40%
1
1–06%
1–16%
1–23%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–08%
2–19%
2–25%
2–32%
2–40%
3
3–08%
3–18%
3–25%
3–32%
3–40%
4
4–05%
4–16%
4–23%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 2–1 (9%) · grid covers 86% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
98%2%1.5
90%10%2.5
75%25%3.5
54%46%4.5
34%66%

Double chance

Brașov Steagul Renaște or draw
88%
Brașov Steagul Renaște or Unirea Constanța
85%
Draw or Unirea Constanța
27%

Winning margin

Brașov Steagul Renaște wins by 2+
52%
Unirea Constanța wins by 2+
4%

Team goals

Brașov Steagul Renaște 1+ goals
94%
Brașov Steagul Renaște 2+ goals
77%
Brașov Steagul Renaște 3+ goals
53%
Unirea Constanța 1+ goals
67%
Unirea Constanța 2+ goals
30%
Unirea Constanța 3+ goals
10%

Draw no bet

Brașov Steagul Renaște (draw refunded)
86%
Unirea Constanța (draw refunded)
14%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
56%
Both score & under 3
6%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Brașov Steagul Renaște at home — creates 2.44, concedes 1.13 · 16 matches

Unirea Constanța away — creates 1.08, concedes 3.24 · 25 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Brașov Steagul Renaște attack 2.44 + Unirea Constanța defence 3.24 → ÷2 → 2.84

Unirea Constanța attack 1.08 + Brașov Steagul Renaște defence 1.13 → ÷2 → 1.10

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 73%?"

Brașov Steagul Renaște scores more
73%
level
15%
Unirea Constanța scores more
12%

Brașov Steagul Renaște at 73% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 73% does not mean "Brașov Steagul Renaște will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Liga II: Brașov Steagul Renaște 5–2 Unirea Constanța

Brașov Steagul Renaște beat Unirea Constanța 5-2 in Liga II on March 4, 2023.

The match was played at Stadionul Tineretului in Braşov.