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Brașov Steagul Renaște vs Politehnica Iasi — Liga II 2018

Brașov Steagul Renaște
Brașov Steagul Renaște
FT
2 – 2
HT: 0 – 1
Politehnica Iasi
Politehnica Iasi
11/12/2022Liga IILiga II · Round 14Stadionul Tineretului

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 16+ matches

Brașov Steagul Renaște55%
×Draw23%
Politehnica Iasi23%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Brașov Steagul Renaște
1.84
Politehnica Iasi
1.10

Brașov Steagul Renaște creates 67% more chances

Season form · 16 home / 41 away

creates per match

Brașov Steagul Renaște
2.44
Politehnica Iasi
1.07

allows per match

Brașov Steagul Renaște
1.13
Politehnica Iasi
1.24

finishing

Brașov Steagul Renaște+0.00on par
Politehnica Iasi+0.00on par

Total goals

56%Over
  • Over56
  • Under44

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

56%Yes
  • Yes56
  • No44

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Brașov Steagul Renaște ↓

Politehnica Iasi →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–05%
0–16%
0–23%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–010%
1–111%
1–26%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–09%
2–110%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–06%
3–16%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–03%
4–13%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
95%5%1.5
79%21%2.5
56%44%3.5
34%66%4.5
17%83%

Double chance

Brașov Steagul Renaște or draw
77%
Brașov Steagul Renaște or Politehnica Iasi
77%
Draw or Politehnica Iasi
45%

Winning margin

Brașov Steagul Renaște wins by 2+
31%
Politehnica Iasi wins by 2+
8%

Team goals

Brașov Steagul Renaște 1+ goals
84%
Brașov Steagul Renaște 2+ goals
55%
Brașov Steagul Renaște 3+ goals
28%
Politehnica Iasi 1+ goals
67%
Politehnica Iasi 2+ goals
30%
Politehnica Iasi 3+ goals
10%

Draw no bet

Brașov Steagul Renaște (draw refunded)
71%
Politehnica Iasi (draw refunded)
29%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
45%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Brașov Steagul Renaște at home — creates 2.44, concedes 1.13 · 16 matches

Politehnica Iasi away — creates 1.07, concedes 1.24 · 41 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Brașov Steagul Renaște attack 2.44 + Politehnica Iasi defence 1.24 → ÷2 → 1.84

Politehnica Iasi attack 1.07 + Brașov Steagul Renaște defence 1.13 → ÷2 → 1.10

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 55%?"

Brașov Steagul Renaște scores more
55%
level
23%
Politehnica Iasi scores more
23%

Brașov Steagul Renaște at 55% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 55% does not mean "Brașov Steagul Renaște will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Brașov Steagul Renaște vs Politehnica Iasi

Brașov Steagul Renaște and Politehnica Iasi drew 2-2 in Liga II on November 12, 2022.

The match was played at Stadionul Tineretului in Braşov.