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Brașov Steagul Renaște vs Minaur Baia Mare — Liga II 2018

Brașov Steagul Renaște
Brașov Steagul Renaște
FT
1 – 1
HT: 0 – 1
Minaur Baia Mare
Minaur Baia Mare
8/14/2022Liga IILiga II · Round 2Stadionul Tineretului

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 13+ matches

Brașov Steagul Renaște65%
×Draw22%
Minaur Baia Mare14%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Brașov Steagul Renaște
1.88
Minaur Baia Mare
0.72

Brașov Steagul Renaște creates 161% more chances

Season form · 16 home / 13 away

creates per match

Brașov Steagul Renaște
2.44
Minaur Baia Mare
0.31

allows per match

Brașov Steagul Renaște
1.13
Minaur Baia Mare
1.31

finishing

Brașov Steagul Renaște+0.00on par
Minaur Baia Mare+0.00on par

Total goals

52%Under
  • Under52
  • Over48

Close call

Both teams score

57%No
  • No57
  • Yes43

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Brașov Steagul Renaște ↓

Minaur Baia Mare →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–07%
0–15%
0–22%
0–30%
0–40%
1
1–014%
1–110%
1–24%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–013%
2–19%
2–23%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–08%
3–16%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–04%
4–13%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (14%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
93%7%1.5
73%27%2.5
48%52%3.5
26%74%4.5
12%88%

Double chance

Brașov Steagul Renaște or draw
86%
Brașov Steagul Renaște or Minaur Baia Mare
78%
Draw or Minaur Baia Mare
35%

Winning margin

Brașov Steagul Renaște wins by 2+
39%
Minaur Baia Mare wins by 2+
4%

Team goals

Brașov Steagul Renaște 1+ goals
85%
Brașov Steagul Renaște 2+ goals
56%
Brașov Steagul Renaște 3+ goals
29%
Minaur Baia Mare 1+ goals
51%
Minaur Baia Mare 2+ goals
16%
Minaur Baia Mare 3+ goals
4%

Draw no bet

Brașov Steagul Renaște (draw refunded)
83%
Minaur Baia Mare (draw refunded)
17%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
33%
Both score & under 3
10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Brașov Steagul Renaște at home — creates 2.44, concedes 1.13 · 16 matches

Minaur Baia Mare away — creates 0.31, concedes 1.31 · 13 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Brașov Steagul Renaște attack 2.44 + Minaur Baia Mare defence 1.31 → ÷2 → 1.88

Minaur Baia Mare attack 0.31 + Brașov Steagul Renaște defence 1.13 → ÷2 → 0.72

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 65%?"

Brașov Steagul Renaște scores more
65%
level
22%
Minaur Baia Mare scores more
14%

Brașov Steagul Renaște at 65% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 65% does not mean "Brașov Steagul Renaște will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Brașov Steagul Renaște vs Minaur Baia Mare

Brașov Steagul Renaște and Minaur Baia Mare drew 1-1 in Liga II on August 14, 2022.

The match was played at Stadionul Tineretului in Braşov.