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Brașov Steagul Renaște vs Metaloglobus — Liga II 2018

Brașov Steagul Renaște
Brașov Steagul Renaște
FT
1 – 0
HT: 1 – 0
Metaloglobus
Metaloglobus
9/10/2022Liga IILiga II · Round 6Stadionul Tineretului

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 16+ matches

Brașov Steagul Renaște57%
×Draw22%
Metaloglobus21%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Brașov Steagul Renaște
1.94
Metaloglobus
1.10

Brașov Steagul Renaște creates 76% more chances

Season form · 16 home / 96 away

creates per match

Brașov Steagul Renaște
2.44
Metaloglobus
1.07

allows per match

Brașov Steagul Renaște
1.13
Metaloglobus
1.43

finishing

Brașov Steagul Renaște+0.00on par
Metaloglobus+0.00on par

Total goals

58%Over
  • Over58
  • Under42

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

57%Yes
  • Yes57
  • No43

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Brașov Steagul Renaște ↓

Metaloglobus →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–05%
0–15%
0–23%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–09%
1–110%
1–26%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–09%
2–110%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–06%
3–16%
3–24%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–03%
4–13%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (10%) · grid covers 95% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
95%5%1.5
81%19%2.5
58%42%3.5
36%64%4.5
19%81%

Double chance

Brașov Steagul Renaște or draw
79%
Brașov Steagul Renaște or Metaloglobus
78%
Draw or Metaloglobus
43%

Winning margin

Brașov Steagul Renaște wins by 2+
33%
Metaloglobus wins by 2+
8%

Team goals

Brașov Steagul Renaște 1+ goals
86%
Brașov Steagul Renaște 2+ goals
58%
Brașov Steagul Renaște 3+ goals
30%
Metaloglobus 1+ goals
67%
Metaloglobus 2+ goals
30%
Metaloglobus 3+ goals
10%

Draw no bet

Brașov Steagul Renaște (draw refunded)
73%
Metaloglobus (draw refunded)
27%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
47%
Both score & under 3
10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Brașov Steagul Renaște at home — creates 2.44, concedes 1.13 · 16 matches

Metaloglobus away — creates 1.07, concedes 1.43 · 96 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Brașov Steagul Renaște attack 2.44 + Metaloglobus defence 1.43 → ÷2 → 1.94

Metaloglobus attack 1.07 + Brașov Steagul Renaște defence 1.13 → ÷2 → 1.10

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 57%?"

Brașov Steagul Renaște scores more
57%
level
22%
Metaloglobus scores more
21%

Brașov Steagul Renaște at 57% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 57% does not mean "Brașov Steagul Renaște will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Liga II: Brașov Steagul Renaște 1–0 Metaloglobus

Brașov Steagul Renaște beat Metaloglobus 1-0 in Liga II on September 10, 2022.

The match was played at Stadionul Tineretului in Braşov.