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Brasilis U20 vs Itapirense U20 — Paulista - U20 2026

Brasilis U20
Brasilis U20
FT
3 – 2
HT: 0 – 1
Itapirense U20
Itapirense U20
M. Geres 89'
V. H. Custodio da Silva 85' (pen)
Y. G. de Jesus Terra 78'
L. Bispo dos Santos 90+4'
G. dos Santos Soares 10'
5/3/2024Paulista - U20Paulista - U20 · 1st Phase - 4CT do Brasilis

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 5+ matches

Brasilis U2053%
×Draw21%
Itapirense U2026%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.2%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Brasilis U20
2.14
Itapirense U20
1.46

Brasilis U20 creates 47% more chances

Season form · 5 home / 17 away

creates per match

Brasilis U20
1.80
Itapirense U20
1.12

allows per match

Brasilis U20
1.80
Itapirense U20
2.47

finishing

Brasilis U20+0.00on par
Itapirense U20+0.00on par

Total goals

Over: 70Under: 3070%Over
  • Over70
  • Under30

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes: 68No: 3268%Yes
  • Yes68
  • No32

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Brasilis U20 ↓

Itapirense U20 →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–03%
0–14%
0–23%
0–31%
0–41%
1
1–06%
1–19%
1–26%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–06%
2–19%
2–27%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–04%
3–17%
3–25%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–02%
4–14%
4–23%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (9%) · grid covers 92% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
97%3%1.5
87%13%2.5
70%30%3.5
48%52%4.5
29%71%

Double chance

Brasilis U20 or draw
74%
Brasilis U20 or Itapirense U20
79%
Draw or Itapirense U20
47%

Winning margin

Brasilis U20 wins by 2+
32%
Itapirense U20 wins by 2+
12%

Team goals

Brasilis U20 1+ goals
88%
Brasilis U20 2+ goals
63%
Brasilis U20 3+ goals
36%
Itapirense U20 1+ goals
77%
Itapirense U20 2+ goals
43%
Itapirense U20 3+ goals
18%

Draw no bet

Brasilis U20 (draw refunded)
67%
Itapirense U20 (draw refunded)
33%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
59%
Both score & under 3
9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Brasilis U20 at home — creates 1.80, concedes 1.80 · 5 matches

Itapirense U20 away — creates 1.12, concedes 2.47 · 17 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Brasilis U20 attack 1.80 + Itapirense U20 defence 2.47 → ÷2 → 2.14

Itapirense U20 attack 1.12 + Brasilis U20 defence 1.80 → ÷2 → 1.46

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 53%?"

Brasilis U20 scores more
53%
level
21%
Itapirense U20 scores more
26%

Brasilis U20 at 53% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 53% does not mean "Brasilis U20 will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

10'
G. dos Santos Soares
78'
Y. G. de Jesus Terra
85'
V. H. Custodio da SilvaPenalty
89'
M. Geres
90+4'
L. Bispo dos Santos

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Brasilis U20 3 – 2 Itapirense U20

Brasilis U20 beat Itapirense U20 3-2 in Paulista - U20 on May 3, 2024.

Goals: G. dos Santos Soares (10'), Y. G. de Jesus Terra (78'), V. H. Custodio da Silva (85' pen), M. Geres (89'), L. Bispo dos Santos (90+4').

The match was played at CT do Brasilis in Águas de Lindóia, São Paulo.