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Brasiliense vs Tupynambás — Serie D 2018

Brasiliense
Brasiliense
FT
2 – 1
HT: 0 – 0
Tupynambás
Tupynambás
10/25/2020Serie DSerie D · Round 9Estádio Elmo Serejo Farias

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 8+ matches

Brasiliense50%
×Draw24%
Tupynambás26%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Brasiliense
1.67
Tupynambás
1.14

Brasiliense creates 46% more chances

Season form · 60 home / 8 away

creates per match

Brasiliense
1.97
Tupynambás
1.50

allows per match

Brasiliense
0.77
Tupynambás
1.38

finishing

Brasiliense+0.00on par
Tupynambás+0.00on par

Total goals

53%Over
  • Over53
  • Under47

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

55%Yes
  • Yes55
  • No45

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Brasiliense ↓

Tupynambás →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–06%
0–17%
0–24%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–010%
1–111%
1–27%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–08%
2–110%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–05%
3–15%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
94%6%1.5
77%23%2.5
53%47%3.5
31%69%4.5
15%85%

Double chance

Brasiliense or draw
74%
Brasiliense or Tupynambás
76%
Draw or Tupynambás
50%

Winning margin

Brasiliense wins by 2+
26%
Tupynambás wins by 2+
10%

Team goals

Brasiliense 1+ goals
81%
Brasiliense 2+ goals
50%
Brasiliense 3+ goals
23%
Tupynambás 1+ goals
68%
Tupynambás 2+ goals
32%
Tupynambás 3+ goals
11%

Draw no bet

Brasiliense (draw refunded)
66%
Tupynambás (draw refunded)
34%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
44%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Brasiliense at home — creates 1.97, concedes 0.77 · 60 matches

Tupynambás away — creates 1.50, concedes 1.38 · 8 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Brasiliense attack 1.97 + Tupynambás defence 1.38 → ÷2 → 1.67

Tupynambás attack 1.50 + Brasiliense defence 0.77 → ÷2 → 1.14

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 50%?"

Brasiliense scores more
50%
level
24%
Tupynambás scores more
26%

Brasiliense at 50% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 50% does not mean "Brasiliense will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Brasiliense vs Tupynambás

Brasiliense beat Tupynambás 2-1 in Serie D on October 25, 2020.

The match was played at Estádio Elmo Serejo Farias in Taguatinga, Distrito Federal.