Brasiliense 2–0 Dom Bosco: Result & Stats | Serie D

Brasiliense

FT

2 – 0

HT: 0 – 0

Dom Bosco

Morais 63'

Reinaldo 53'

5/27/2018

Serie D · Round 6Estádio Nacional de Brasília (Brasília, Distrito Federal)

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 3+ matches

Brasiliense74%

×Draw17%

Dom Bosco8%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

BrasilienseExpected goals in this matchDom Bosco

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

2.15

0.55

Brasiliense

2.15

Dom Bosco

0.55

Brasiliense creates 291% more chances

Season form · 60 home / 3 away

1.97

creates per match

0.33

0.77

allows per match

2.33

creates per match

Brasiliense

1.97

Dom Bosco

0.33

allows per match

Brasiliense

0.77

Dom Bosco

2.33

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Brasiliense+0.00on par

Dom Bosco+0.00on par

Total goals

Under50
Over50

Close call

Both teams score

No63
Yes37

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Brasiliense ↓

Dom Bosco →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–07%

0–14%

0–21%

0–30%

0–40%

1

1–015%

1–18%

1–22%

1–30%

1–40%

2

2–016%

2–19%

2–22%

2–30%

2–40%

3

3–011%

3–16%

3–22%

3–30%

3–40%

4

4–06%

4–13%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 2–0 (16%) · grid covers 94% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

93%7%1.5

75%25%2.5

50%50%3.5

28%72%4.5

13%87%

Double chance

Brasiliense or draw

92%

Brasiliense or Dom Bosco

83%

Draw or Dom Bosco

26%

Winning margin

Brasiliense wins by 2+

49%

Dom Bosco wins by 2+

2%

Team goals

Brasiliense 1+ goals

88%

Brasiliense 2+ goals

63%

Brasiliense 3+ goals

36%

Dom Bosco 1+ goals

42%

Dom Bosco 2+ goals

11%

Dom Bosco 3+ goals

2%

Draw no bet

Brasiliense (draw refunded)

90%

Dom Bosco (draw refunded)

10%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

29%

Both score & under 3

8%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Brasiliense at home — creates 1.97, concedes 0.77 · 60 matches

Dom Bosco away — creates 0.33, concedes 2.33 · 3 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Brasiliense attack 1.97 + Dom Bosco defence 2.33 → ÷2 → 2.15

Dom Bosco attack 0.33 + Brasiliense defence 0.77 → ÷2 → 0.55

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 74%?"

Brasiliense scores more

74%

level

17%

Dom Bosco scores more

8%

Brasiliense at 74% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 74% does not mean "Brasiliense will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

53'

Reinaldo

63'

Morais

80'

Lucas Ferreira← Reinaldo

80'

Radames← Aldo

82'

Tartá← Erick Flores

84'

Enio← Heltinho

85'

Carlos Cezar← Nene

Brasiliense

Dom

▼

▼

⚽

▼

▼

⚽

▼

Reinaldo

Nunes

Peninha

Manager: Ailton Ferraz

80'▲Lucas Ferreira←▼Reinaldo

80'▲Radames←▼Aldo

82'▲Tartá←▼Erick Flores

Brasiliense substitutes

FerreiraRadamesTartáNikaelPatrickRomarioFelipeRicharlisson

Manager: Elias

84'▲Enio←▼Heltinho

85'▲Carlos Cezar←▼Nene

Dom Bosco substitutes

EnioCezarHailsonIgor