Brasiliense 3–1 Caldense: Result & Stats | Serie D

Brasiliense

FT

3 – 1

HT: 1 – 0

Caldense

Douglas 59', 47' (pen)

Romario 41'

Filipi Souza 77' (pen)

9/20/2020

Serie D · Round 1Estádio Nacional de Brasília

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 28+ matches

Brasiliense57%

×Draw23%

Caldense20%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.2%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

BrasilienseExpected goals in this matchCaldense

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.79

0.95

Brasiliense

1.79

Caldense

0.95

Brasiliense creates 88% more chances

Season form · 61 home / 28 away

1.97

creates per match

1.14

0.77

allows per match

1.61

creates per match

Brasiliense

1.97

Caldense

1.14

allows per match

Brasiliense

0.77

Caldense

1.61

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Brasiliense+0.00on par

Caldense+0.00on par

Total goals

Over51
Under49

Close call

Both teams score

Yes51
No49

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Brasiliense ↓

Caldense →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–06%

0–16%

0–23%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–012%

1–111%

1–25%

1–32%

1–40%

2

2–010%

2–110%

2–25%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–06%

3–16%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–03%

4–13%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (12%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

94%6%1.5

76%24%2.5

51%49%3.5

29%71%4.5

14%86%

Double chance

Brasiliense or draw

80%

Brasiliense or Caldense

77%

Draw or Caldense

43%

Winning margin

Brasiliense wins by 2+

32%

Caldense wins by 2+

7%

Team goals

Brasiliense 1+ goals

83%

Brasiliense 2+ goals

53%

Brasiliense 3+ goals

26%

Caldense 1+ goals

61%

Caldense 2+ goals

25%

Caldense 3+ goals

7%

Draw no bet

Brasiliense (draw refunded)

74%

Caldense (draw refunded)

26%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

40%

Both score & under 3

11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Brasiliense at home — creates 1.97, concedes 0.77 · 61 matches

Caldense away — creates 1.14, concedes 1.61 · 28 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Brasiliense attack 1.97 + Caldense defence 1.61 → ÷2 → 1.79

Caldense attack 1.14 + Brasiliense defence 0.77 → ÷2 → 0.95

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 57%?"

Brasiliense scores more

57%

level

23%

Caldense scores more

20%

Brasiliense at 57% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 57% does not mean "Brasiliense will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

41'

Romario

47'

DouglasPenalty

59'

Douglas

72'

Marcos Aurélio← Douglas

72'

David Peninha← Romario

76'

Carlos← Leonardo

77'

Filipi SouzaPenalty

82'

David Manteiga← Julen

84'

Renatinho← Jefferson Maranhao

Brasiliense

Caldense

⚽

▼

⚽2

▼

▼

▼

⚽

▼

Romario

Manager: Edson Souza

72'▲Marcos Aurélio←▼Douglas

72'▲David Peninha←▼Romario

82'▲David Manteiga←▼Julen

84'▲Renatinho←▼Jefferson Maranhao

Brasiliense substitutes

AurélioPeninhaManteigaRenatinhoEdmarFabinhoKeynanVitorAlexTharlley

Manager: Marcus Paulo

76'▲Carlos←▼Leonardo

Caldense substitutes

CarlosThiago