Brasil Farroupilha 0–1 Gramadense: Result & Stats

Brasil Farroupilha

FT

0 – 1

HT: 0 – 0

Gramadense

R. Medeiros 71'

6/7/2026

Copa Gaúcha · Group Stage - 4

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 3+ matches

Brasil Farroupilha18%

×Draw33%

Gramadense49%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.2%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Brasil FarroupilhaExpected goals in this matchGramadense

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

0.54

1.08

Brasil Farroupilha

0.54

Gramadense

1.08

Gramadense creates 100% more chances

Season form · 3 home / 4 away

0.33

creates per match

1.50

0.67

allows per match

0.75

creates per match

Brasil Farroupilha

0.33

Gramadense

1.50

allows per match

Brasil Farroupilha

0.67

Gramadense

0.75

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Brasil Farroupilha+0.00on par

Gramadense+0.00on par

Total goals

Under78
Over22

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No72
Yes28

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Brasil Farroupilha ↓

Gramadense →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–020%

0–121%

0–212%

0–34%

0–41%

1

1–011%

1–112%

1–26%

1–32%

1–41%

2

2–03%

2–13%

2–22%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–01%

3–11%

3–20%

3–30%

3–40%

4

4–00%

4–10%

4–20%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 0–1 (21%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

80%20%1.5

48%52%2.5

22%78%3.5

8%92%4.5

2%98%

Double chance

Brasil Farroupilha or draw

51%

Brasil Farroupilha or Gramadense

67%

Draw or Gramadense

82%

Winning margin

Brasil Farroupilha wins by 2+

4%

Gramadense wins by 2+

20%

Team goals

Brasil Farroupilha 1+ goals

42%

Brasil Farroupilha 2+ goals

10%

Brasil Farroupilha 3+ goals

2%

Gramadense 1+ goals

66%

Gramadense 2+ goals

29%

Gramadense 3+ goals

10%

Draw no bet

Brasil Farroupilha (draw refunded)

27%

Gramadense (draw refunded)

73%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

16%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Brasil Farroupilha at home — creates 0.33, concedes 0.67 · 3 matches

Gramadense away — creates 1.50, concedes 0.75 · 4 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Brasil Farroupilha attack 0.33 + Gramadense defence 0.75 → ÷2 → 0.54

Gramadense attack 1.50 + Brasil Farroupilha defence 0.67 → ÷2 → 1.08

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 49%?"

Brasil Farroupilha scores more

18%

level

33%

Gramadense scores more

49%

Gramadense at 49% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 49% does not mean "Gramadense will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

71'

R. Medeiros

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff